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Forex - Weekly outlook: October 25-29

Published 10/24/2010, 05:35 AM
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Investing.com - The week beginning October 25 comes after a week of volatile trade which saw the dollar close higher against the euro for the first time in six weeks.

The dollar staged a broad rally on Tuesday after China’s central bank unexpectedly hiked its benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years, sparking fears over a slowdown in global economic growth. However the dollar pared gains on Wednesday, amid a sense that the previous day’s selloff was overdone.

The dollar advanced modestly on Friday, ahead of the weekend meetings of finance ministers and central bankers from the G20 group of industrialized nations. The meetings focused on whether nations from the U.S. to China are relying on weaker exchange rates to spur economic growth.

At the conclusion of the meetings, leaders pledged to shun competitive currency devaluations but pulled up short of setting targets to reduce trade imbalances that are overshadowing prospects for global growth.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish official data relating to the housing sector as well as data on consumer confidence, manufacturing, and GDP. The country will also publish a key weekly report on jobless claims while the chairman of the Federal Reserve is due to speak.

In the euro zone, data from Germany will dominate as the country is set to release data on consumer climate and unemployment. Meanwhile, the broader euro zone is to publish data on industrial production and CPI. The European Central Bank president is also expected to speak.

Elsewhere, the U.K. is to release preliminary data on GDP as well as data on house prices. Switzerland is to publish the results of its KOF economic barometer as well as a consumption indicator. The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate while the country is also to release official data on retail sales, CPI and industrial production.

Australia is to release a flurry of data, with two reports on inflation as well as reports on business confidence, housing and an index of leading economic indicators. Meanwhile, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to make a speech. Also next week, Canada is to release data on GDP while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its benchmark interest rate.  

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 25

Australia will begin the week with official data on producer price inflation while the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens is due to make a speech. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Later in the day, the U.K. is to release industry data on mortgage approvals while the euro zone is to publish official data on industrial new orders, a leading indicator of production.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to publish official data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement.

Tuesday, October 26

The euro zone is to publish a report on German consumer climate while Switzerland is to publish its UBS consumption indicator, a leading indicator of economic health. Meanwhile, the U.K. is to release preliminary data on GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release two separate reports on house prices, a leading indicator of health in the housing sector. The country is also to release data on consumer confidence and manufacturing.

In addition, the National Australia Bank is to publish a quarterly report on business confidence while the governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney is to speak. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any indication to the future direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, October 27

Australia is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth. Later in the day, the country will publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement will be followed with a closely watched rate statement. Later Wednesday, the National Bank of New Zealand is to publish data on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation while France is to release consumer spending data.

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production. The country is also to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of health in the housing sector as well as a report on crude oil stockpiles.

Meanwhile, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney is to speak while Japan is to publish data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

Thursday, October 28


The Bank of Japan will announce its benchmark interest rate and the announcement will be followed by a closely watched press conference. The bank is also due to publish its outlook report, which provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation. Later in the day, the country is also due to produce key data on its unemployment rate, as well as data on manufacturing activity, household spending, industrial production and consumer price inflation for both Japan and the Tokyo area. 
 
Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, as well as information on natural gas stockpiles. Meanwhile, in the euro zone, Germany is due to release a report on employment change, while President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

The U.K. is to produce industry data on house prices and retail sales. Later in the day, market research group Gfk will publish a report on U.K. consumer confidence

Also Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is due to publish its annual report, providing a summary of the prior year's operations, while New Zealand is to publish data on its trade balance as well as a report on building consents.

Friday, October 29

The U.S. is to round up the week by producing preliminary data on GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to publish a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Also Friday, the euro zone is to produce key data on its unemployment rate as well as preliminary data on inflation. Germany is due to release a report on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the KOF Economic Research Agency is to publish its economic barometer for Switzerland, while the U.K. is to publish official data on net lending to individuals.

Australia is to publish data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health as well as a report on private sector credit. Japan is to publish data on housing starts, a leading indicator of growth in the housing sector.

Finally, Canada is to publish official data on GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth as well as data on inflation.


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