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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 27- July 1

Published 06/26/2011, 04:22 AM
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Investing.com - The euro ended down against the U.S. dollar for a third successive week on Friday, as concerns that Greece’s debt crisis would spread to affect the region’s banking system weighed.

Trading in Italian bank shares was suspended briefly on Friday after ratings agency Moody's said it was considering downgrading the creditworthiness of 13 of the country's banks, as they would be vulnerable to a cut in the government’s credit rating.

Greece received a EUR110 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in May 2010 but now needs a second bailout in order to avert a sovereign debt default.

Prime Minister George Papandreou's new government survived a confidence vote by a thin margin last Tuesday and for Greece to get the money, the country's parliament must approve a EUR28.4 billion austerity package next week.

On Friday, Socialist deputy Thomas Robopoulos said he wasn't prepared to vote for the government's planned austerity package.

Also last week, the pound tumbled to a three-month low against the greenback after the minutes of the Bank of England’s June policy meeting showed that some monetary policy committee members believed the growth outlook had weakened and some believed more monetary stimulus may be necessary.

Meanwhile, on Friday BoE Governor Mervyn King said that the euro zone fiscal crisis represented the largest single threat to the U.K.’s financial stability.

Elevated risk aversion saw the safe haven Swiss franc advance to record highs against the euro and the greenback on Friday. The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at record low levels for the foreseeable future to support the country’s export industries in the face of the franc’s current strength.

The commodity linked Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollar also came under pressure, amid fears over the outcome of Greece’s austerity vote.

In the week ahead, the focus looks likely to remain on Greece, with the Greek parliament due to hold its critical vote on austerity measures on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a relatively small amount of U.S. data is scheduled for release, with the main highlight looking likely to be Friday’s ISM manufacturing index.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 27

New Zealand is to publish official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the month.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on personal income and expenditure as well as a consumer price index.

Tuesday, June 28

Japan is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

In the euro zone, market research group Gfk is to publish an index of German consumer climate, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The euro zone is also to publish official data on German import prices as well as preliminary data on German consumer price inflation. Elsewhere, Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.

The U.K. is to publish data on its current account, as well as revised data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Mervyn King and several policymakers are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

In addition, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is to speak in Brussels; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, June 29

Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.K., the BoE is to publish official data on net lending to individuals, which is closely correlated with consumer spending. The bank is also to publish reports on M4 money supply and mortgage approvals.

Elsewhere, Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish industry data on pending home sales as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles. In addition, Canada is to publish government data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

Thursday, June 30

New Zealand is to publish official data on building consents, a leading gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on business confidence, an important indicator of economic health. Later in the day, Australia is to publish official data on private sector credit.

In the U.K., market research group Gfk is to publish data on consumer confidence, while mortgage lender Nationwide is to publish its house price index, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health.

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, Germany is to publish official data on retail sales and employment change, while France is to publish official data on consumer spending. Also Thursday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Friday, July 1

Japan is to publish government data on household spending as well as official data on consumer price inflation and the unemployment rate. The country is also to publish government data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish a report on commodity prices, as commodities account for over half of Australia's export earnings.

The euro zone is to publish official data on the unemployment rate, while Switzerland and the U.K. are both to publish data on manufacturing growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Elsewhere, markets in Canada are to remain closed for a bank holiday, while the U.S. is to round up the week with a report by the Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing activity and revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.

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