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Forex - Weekly outlook: January 24-28

Published 01/23/2011, 04:38 AM
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Investing.com – The week ending January 21 saw the U.S. dollar fall against its major counterparts on Friday as the euro rose to a two-month high, after a report showed German business sentiment at a record peak.

The German Ifo Institute said its business-climate index rose to its highest level in 20 years in January, climbing to 110.3 from a revised 109.8 in December.

The single currency was also lifted by growing optimism that European policy makers will move to boost the lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility and expand the facility’s role to allow for debt purchases.

Friday's gains added to a sharp two-week rally in the euro, which has rallied nearly 5% since a low of 1.2916 reached on January 7.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., official data showed that retail sales fell by 0.8% in December, double the expected 0.4% decline. However, the pound remained supported on the view that the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates soon as inflation continues to rise.

Also last week, the Canadian dollar dropped after hitting its highest level in more than two years versus the greenback after the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 1% and said future interest-rate increases would be “carefully considered.”

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve is to announce its Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday while the U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter gross domestic product on Friday.

The U.K. is also to publish preliminary fourth quarter GDP data, while the Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 24


Australia is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Later in the day, the country is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors while Germany and France will also publish individual reports. The euro zone is also to publish official data on industrial new orders, a leading indicator of production.

Tuesday, January 25

Australia is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate which will be followed by a closely watched press conference.

In the euro zone, market research group Gfk is to publish a report on German consumer climate while France is to publish official data on consumer spending. Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to publish a consumption index.

The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The country is also to publish official data on public sector borrowing.

Later in the day, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King is to speak at a public engagement; his remarks will be closely watched for clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy.

In the U.S., the Conference Board is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to publish industry data on house prices, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health.

Also Tuesday, Canada is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, while markets in Australia are to remain closed for a public holiday.

Wednesday, January 26

The Bank of Japan is to publish its monthly report which contains a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions.

Later in the day, the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of the January meeting of the monetary policy committee. The data gives an in-depth insight into the economic conditions that influenced the vote on where to set interest rates.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to announce its Federal Funds Rate which will coincide with the publication of the banks interest rate statement. The statement discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes on interest rates. The country is also to publish official data on new home sales.

Also Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. Meanwhile, Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators while Japan is to release official data on its trade balance.

Thursday, January 27

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while the U.K. is to produce industry data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, as well as reports on durable goods orders, pending home sales and natural gas stockpiles.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting, which provide valuable insights into the bank's view of economic conditions. Later in the day, the country is to publish official data on its unemployment rate, as well as data on retail sales, household spending and consumer price inflation for both Japan and the Tokyo area.

Friday, January 28

The U.S. is to round up the week by producing preliminary data on fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. Later in the day, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is to release data on private borrowing and M3 money supply, an important inflationary indicator

Also Friday, the KOF Economic Research Agency is to publish its economic barometer for Switzerland, which is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.


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