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Dollar rises vs. yen as investors price in expected Clinton win

Published 11/08/2016, 10:34 AM
© Reuters. Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration

By Dion Rabouin

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Tuesday, but was overall little moved as investors bet on victory for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election that had already been largely priced into the market.

A Trump victory would be expected to drive capital into the perceived security of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Both fell against the dollar in morning trading.

But overall, investors appeared to be consolidating positions after sizeable moves on Monday when the dollar rose about 0.75 percent against six major currencies, its largest one-day percentage gain in nearly a month.

"Everybody’s got their bets on the table," said Marc Chandler, chief global currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. "There hasn’t been any earth-shattering economic data. Things are quiet."

The dollar, steadily on the rise in recent months, had dipped over 2 percent against a basket of currencies that measures its broader strength in the week following FBI director James Comey's announcement the agency was looking into newly discovered emails related to Clinton's use of a private email server.

Comey said in a letter to Congress on Sunday that the agency's review did not find anything to warrant criminal charges against Clinton.

Data from exchange-traded funds provider ETF Securities showed its largely retail client base had moved $51 million out of long positions in the dollar, or bets on it to rise, in the past month. Last week's outflow was the biggest since early July, it said.

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The dollar index (DXY) was flat on Tuesday at 97.775. It rose 0.35 percent against the yen to 104.81 yen <JPY=> and about 0.15 percent against the Swiss franc

A Trump victory would come as a surprise, but investors were mindful of the precedent set by Britain's referendum on European Union membership in June, which confounded pollsters by delivering a shock vote for Brexit.

"Versus the yen the market pricing is for a 3-4 percent fall on a surprise outcome," said Josh O'Byrne, currency strategist with U.S. bank Citi in London.

"All the volatility is priced on that side ... but it doesn't feel like it will have quite as much of an impact as the Brexit vote, at least for G10 currencies."

Sterling tumbled more than 10 percent in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

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