BEIJING, April 25 (Reuters) - China's full-year trade surplus is likely to narrow further to about $140 billion, or 2 percent of the gross domestic product, due to surging global commodity prices, a government think-tank said on Monday.
If the forecast is accurate, it would mean China's trade surplus as a share of GDP will fall further from last year's 3.1 percent. That could mitigate international pressure for China to let the yuan rise faster to improve its balance of payments.
In a report, the Development Research Centre said China's total imports could grow about 25 percent this year, outpacing export growth, which may slow to 20 percent from last year's 31 percent.
It said the slowdown in exports was partly due to a high comparative base from a year ago.
The projection is in line with a forecast made by the commerce ministry, which said on Friday that China's imports are likely to grow at a faster clip than exports this year, leading to a further improvement in the trade balance. [ID:nL3E7FM057]
China's gaping trade surplus has been a lightning rod in its relations with the United States. Some U.S. lawmakers say the trade surplus is exacerbated by an undervalued yuan that is managed by Beijing, providing a competitive advantage for Chinese exporters.
China has said it intends eventually to allow market forces to set the value of the yuan but wants to do so gradually in order not to disrupt its export sector. Lately, Beijing has also said it recognises the need to balance its trade more toward domestic consumption.
Rising global commodity prices and solid domestic economic growth helped China record a rare trade deficit in the first quarter.
The think-tank said China's economy, the world's second-largest, is expected to grow about 9 percent this year, slowing from last year's 10.3 percent.
It said the building of government-subsidised homes could moderate the impact from the clampdown on the property sector. That should help property investment grow more than 20 percent this year, but still down from last year's 33 percent. (Reporting by Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing; Editing by Ken Wills)