Please try another search
By David Stanway and Jennifer Rigby
SHANGHAI/LONDON (Reuters) - China risks just over 1.5 million COVID deaths if it drops its tough zero-COVID policy without any safeguards such as ramping up vaccination and access to treatments, according to new modelling by scientists in China and the United States.
The warning follows several recently published reports from senior health advisers in China who said the zero-COVID approach remains essential to defeating the pandemic and buying time for mitigating measures.
China has stuck with its zero-COVID strategy even as most other countries that once championed the policy shifted towards living with the virus in order to reopen their economies and restore personal freedoms.
Under zero-COVID, authorities lock down large population areas to stamp out viral spread in response to any coronavirus outbreak, even if just a small number of people test positive.
Shanghai, a city of 25 million people, has been locked down for nearly six weeks as it battles China's biggest coronavirus outbreak yet, with anger among residents and economic pressure mounting. [L2N2WL041]
But the new research published in Nature Medicine suggests that while dropping "zero-COVID" completely could be risky for public health, the impact could be greatly mitigated by focusing on other interventions like vaccinating the elderly.
"The level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave," the authors wrote.
They forecast that peak demand on intensive care would be more than 15 times capacity, causing roughly 1.5 million deaths, based on worldwide data gathered about the variant's severity.
However, the researchers said the death toll could be much reduced if there was a focus on vaccination - only about 50% of over-80s in China are vaccinated - as well as providing antivirals while maintaining some restrictions.
The lead authors of the paper are from Fudan University in China, backed up by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health.
"The availability of vaccines and antiviral drugs offer an opportunity to move away from zero-COVID. I can't think what there is now to wait for," said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University familiar with the study.
He cautioned that the transition must be gradual.
But government health advisers in China are sticking to zero-COVID for now.
In correspondence published by the peer-reviewed medical journal the Lancet last Friday, a team of Shanghai medical experts said the city's vital role in the national Chinese economy made lockdown there unavoidable.
"The spill-out of virus to other places... could have unimaginably severe consequences," said the team, which includes Zhang Wenhong, an adviser to authorities in Shanghai on treatment for COVID-19.
Shanghai's "dynamic" zero-COVID policies would "overcome weak links in the immunological barrier in populations across the country", they said, pointing out that around 49 million Chinese aged 60 and over remained unvaccinated.
Zero-COVID was still required to prevent a "run" on China's health resources, according to a separate commentary published in the official journal of China's Disease Prevention and Control Center and co-written by senior government health adviser Liang Wannian.
"The dynamic COVID-zero strategies adopted by China have won a precious time window for the future," it said, adding that the country must "seize the opportunity" to develop more drugs and vaccines.
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
I feel that this comment is:
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.