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U.S. crude nears 6-week lows, as Brexit concerns bolster dollar

Published 06/27/2016, 02:29 PM
Updated 06/27/2016, 02:39 PM
Both Brent and WTI fell by more than 2% on Monday to close below $48 a barrel

Investing.com -- U.S. crude futures slid to near six week lows on Monday, as a broadly stronger dollar weighed on global oil prices while the shockwaves of last week's historic Brexit referendum continued to be felt worldwide.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for August delivery traded between $45.88 and $47.96 a barrel before closing at $46.41, down 1.23 or 2.58% on the session. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for September delivery wavered between $47.31 and $49.48 a barrel, before settling at $47.85, down 1.24 or 2.43% on the day. Crude futures have slumped by approximately 8% since last Friday's shocking decision by U.K. voters to approve a departure from the European Union.

Despite the considerable two-day sell-off, U.S. crude futures are still up by more than 65% from their level in mid-February when they slid to a 13-year low at $26.05 a barrel.

In Monday's session, investors continued to pile into safe-haven assets such as government bonds, Gold and the U.S. Dollar, as the British Pound fell an additional 3% to touch a fresh 31-year low against the greenback. On Monday afternoon, Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating on U.K's sovereign debt from AAA to AA, as it weighed the possibility of future contagion effects if other nations in the EU decide to leave the European bloc. In lowering its outlook for U.K. bonds to negative, S&P cited heightened risks of market deterioration on external financial conditions, as well as the wider constitutional issues surrounding a potential U.K. departure by Northern Island or Scotland.

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In last week's referendum, Scotland voters backed the Remain campaign by a 62-38% margin, triggering concerns that the country could look to leave the U.K. in the coming months. Shortly after the results were tallied, Scotland first minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would seek a re-revote of the nation's 2014 independence referendum from the U.K., which failed by a 55-45%. In the months leading to the 2014 referendum, Scotland's Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin predicted that production in Scottish offshore oil fields could generate as much as £57 billion by 2018.

Also on Monday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a note to investors that last week's Brexit vote could tip the U.K. into mild recession by early next year. A number of leading energy analysts have expressed widespread concerns that demand in oil could falter if economic growth throughout the euro area declines sharply.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rallied by more than 1% to hit a fresh three-month high at 96.86, before falling back slightly in U.S. afternoon trading. The index is still down more than 3% since early-December.

Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

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