By Christopher Johnson
LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil rose on Tuesday after a forecast that U.S. shale oil output would record its first monthly decline in more than four years and on tensions in Yemen, where top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is embroiled in a civil war.
Brent crude
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday it expected U.S. shale production to fall by 45,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.98 million bpd in May.
Shale production has helped boost U.S. oil output by more than 4 million bpd since 2010 and has been a key factor behind the collapse in world oil prices over the last year.
But a collapse in oil prices from above $115 a barrel last June, have now begun to hit exploration.
"It's a small change, just a drop in the ocean, but an excuse to buy," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank (XETRA:CBKG).
"A lot of speculative financial investors think oil is cheap and are looking for a reason to get into the market."
Oil also found support from tensions in the Middle East, where fighting is continuing in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Yemen's liquefied natural gas plant said on Tuesday it declared force majeure due to deteriorating security, halting production.
Yemen is a small oil producer, pumping only around 130,000 bpd of crude in recent months, but analysts fear its civil war could destabilize its northern neighbor, Saudi Arabia.
"Geopolitical risk in oil markets remains elevated," JP Morgan analysts said in a note. "From a fundamental perspective however, supply from the Middle East is expected to remain high, with Saudi Arabia and Iraqi production on the rise."
In Asia, China exported 750,000 tonnes of crude oil in March, its largest volume since 2006, in a possible sign the world's second largest crude importer is running out of storage capacity.
Pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the country must prepare to face bigger economic difficulties, Premier Li Keqiang was reported as saying by Chinese state radio on Tuesday, a day before the scheduled release of first quarter GDP figures.
China's economy is growing at its slowest in 25 years and its export sales contracted 15 percent in March, deepening concern over Chinese demand for oil.