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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: September 15 - 19

Published 09/14/2014, 10:43 AM
Natural gas futures tack on 1.65% on the week

Investing.com - U.S. natural gas futures clawed back from the previous session's sharp losses on Friday, as concerns over tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico prompted traders to return to the market and seek cheap valuations.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in October tacked on 3.4 cents, or 0.89%, to settle at $3.857 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday.

A day earlier, natural gas prices plunged 13.1 cents, or 3.31%, to end at $3.823.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.761 per million British thermal units, the low from September 8 and resistance at $3.963, the high from September 11.

On the week, Nymex natural gas prices rose 6.4 cents, or 1.65%.

The National Hurricane Center said Friday that a low-pressure storm system trekking across southern Florida stood a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.

Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico tend to send natural gas prices rising, as rigs evacuate to let the storm pass, which cuts into production.

Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's inventory data, which showed a larger than expected increase for the 21st consecutive week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 92 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for an increase of 82 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 64 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 60 billion cubic feet.

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Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 21 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.801 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 14.2% from 15.4% a week earlier and down from a record 54.7% at the end of March.

The EIA's next storage report is slated for release on Thursday, September 18, with analysts expecting a build of 93 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 12.

Inventories rose by 48 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 71 billion cubic feet.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending September 9.

Net longs totaled 19,000 contracts, down 13.8% from net longs of 22,053 in the previous week.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for October delivery settled at $92.27 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down $1.02, or 1.09%, on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for October delivery slumped 2.8% on the week to settle at $2.742 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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