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Grain futures - weekly outlook: September 22 - 26

Published 09/21/2014, 08:49 AM
Grain futures end at four-year lows on ample supplies

Investing.com - U.S. corn, soy and wheat futures ended the week at their lowest level in more than four years on Friday, as ongoing expectations for record supplies and concerns over lackluster demand weighed.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, U.S. corn for December delivery tumbled 6.6 cents, or 2%, on Friday to settle at $3.3163 by close of trade.

Corn futures hit $3.3140 a bushel earlier in the day, a level not seen since June 2010.

For the week, the December corn contract lost 7.0 cents, or 2.06%, the fifth consecutive weekly decline, as expectations of record yields across much of the U.S. grain belt drove prices lower.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated on September 11 that the U.S. corn harvest will hit a record-high 14.39 billion bushels, up from a projection of 14.03 billion in August.

Global ending stocks were forecast to exceed 2 billion bushels for the first time in a decade.

Meanwhile, U.S. soybeans for November delivery dropped 14.4 cents, or 1.49%, on Friday to settle the week at $9.5700 a bushel by close of trade.

Earlier in the session, prices of the oilseed hit $9.5600 a bushel, the lowest level since July 2010.

On the week, the November soybean contract declined 28.2 cents, or 2.86%, the sixth straight weekly loss, as ongoing expectations for a record U.S. harvest weighed.

The USDA estimated earlier in the month that this fall's U.S. harvest would reach an all-time high of 3.913 billion bushels.

Soybean ending stocks will more than triple in the 2014-15 marketing season to 475 million bushels, the highest since the 2006-07 season.

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Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, U.S. wheat for December delivery sank 14.0 cents, or 2.87%, on Friday to end the week at $4.7440 a bushel.

Wheat prices fell to a daily low of $4.7360 a bushel earlier Friday, the weakest level since June 2010.

On the week, the December wheat contract lost 28.0 cents, or 5.57%, as lackluster demand for U.S. supplies pressured prices.

According to the USDA, exporters sold 314,500 metric tons of U.S. wheat last week, down 55% from a week ago and below the range of market forecasts for 450,000 to 650,000 tons.

The USDA said on September 11 that U.S. ending stocks were forecast at 698 million bushels, up from a previous estimate of 663 million, due in large part to weak export demand for U.S. supplies.

Global wheat inventories at the end of the 2014-15 season will total 196.38 million metric tons, up from 192.96 projected in August.

In the week ahead, market players will focus on the release of key USDA data, including crop progress and weekly export sales figures.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.

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