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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: April 8 - 12

Published 04/07/2013, 08:14 AM
BIG
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Investing.com - U.S. grain futures ended Friday’s session mostly lower, with soybean and corn prices falling to multi-month lows amid concerns over slowing global demand and easing fears over U.S. supplies.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans for May delivery declined 0.7% Friday to settle at USD13.6225 a bushel by close of trade. CBOT soy prices fell to a session low of USD13.5462 a bushel earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 6.

On the week, the May soy contract lost 3.15%, as investors sold the oilseed amid worries over the impact of a bird flu outbreak in China, which could reduce feed demand in the world's biggest soy consumer.

At least six people have died from a new strain of bird flu, according to the World Health Organization, prompting Shanghai to begin slaughtering chickens at a local market.

The city has destroyed more than 20,000 birds so far. Soybeans are used as a key ingredient in chicken feed.

China accounts for roughly 60% of world soybean imports and its purchases have a big impact on prices.

Prices of the oilseed came under additional pressure as farmers in Brazil and Argentina started to harvest their massive soy crops.

Brazil and Argentina are major soy exporters and compete with the U.S. for business on the global market. Large South American crop prospects could weigh on demand for U.S. supplies.

Easing concerns over U.S. supplies also weighed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week domestic soybean stockpiles on March 1 totaled 999 million bushels, 5.5% above market expectations of 947 million bushels.

Soy prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks, falling into bear market territory. Prices of the oilseed are down nearly 24% since hitting an all-time high of USD17.9475 a bushel, set in September.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for May delivery fell 0.3% Friday to settle the week at USD6.2888 a bushel. Earlier in the session, CBOT corn prices fell to USD6.2662 a bushel, the weakest level since June 25.

On the week, the May corn contract lost 6.6%, the biggest weekly decline in 21 months. Corn prices continued to come under pressure as market players exited bets that prices will rise in response to last week’s bearish USDA supply report.

Prices are down nearly 15% since the release of the USDA report, which showed U.S. corn stockpiles totaled 5.39 billion bushels as of March 1, well above market expectations of 4.99 billion bushels.

The agency also said that U.S. farmers will plant 97.28 million acres of corn this year, the most planted since 1936.

Corn prices entered a bear market slump this week. Prices of the grain are down almost 25% since hitting an all-time high of USD8.3325 a bushel, set at the height of the U.S. drought in August 2012.

Meanwhile, wheat for May delivery edged up 0.8% on Friday to settle the week at USD6.9938 a bushel. On Thursday, CBOT wheat rose to a one-week high of USD7.0537 a bushel

The May wheat contract added 2.15% on the week, as investors bought the grain amid concerns that adverse weather conditions in major wheat-growing states across the Great Plains-region will hurt the U.S. winter crop.

Wheat traders have been closely monitoring weather and crop conditions in the area, where prolonged dryness threatens dormant winter wheat crops.
 
In the week ahead, corn and soybean traders will continue to pay close attention to weather forecasts for grain-growing regions in Brazil and Argentina, while wheat traders will monitor temperatures in the Great Plains-region.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.

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