The global beef market is experiencing a notable divergence, with North American cattle markets displaying resilience while southern hemisphere countries face significant price drops, according to the latest Rabobank Beef Quarterly Report. The report highlights a stable price environment in the United States and a 3% increase in Canada between June and October, contrasting sharply with the southern hemisphere's steep declines.
In Australia, beef prices have plummeted by 28%, with New Zealand and Brazil also experiencing downturns. Despite these countries ramping up production, it hasn't been sufficient to compensate for reduced outputs in Europe and the US. New Zealand did witness a temporary price surge due to a decrease in slaughters as the season approached its low months, with North Island bull prices peaking at $6.15/kg on October 27 before slipping back to $5.95/kg.
September's beef export data painted a picture of contraction with a year-on-year decline of 5% across the board. China's reduced consumer demand has led to a significant volume drop of 30%, while the US has seen its exports increase by 35%, buoyed by strong domestic consumption.
Looking ahead, global beef production is forecasted to shrink by another 1% through the next year. The US, in particular, is preparing for further production cuts estimated at 4.5%, which will amplify its net-import position as domestic consumption also falls by 3%.
The post-covid landscape has seen growth in beef consumption stall, especially across Asian markets where buyer caution persists despite economic recoveries. This trend is expected to continue into the coming year. However, despite less than 1% of worldwide imports being affected by Middle Eastern unrests, global beef trade remains relatively stable. Mexico has emerged alongside Australia and New Zealand as one of the main beneficiaries during these shifting market conditions. Rabobank senior analysts emphasized that stability is still present in global beef trade despite these regional variances and challenges.
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