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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: March 19 - 23

Published 03/18/2012, 08:18 AM
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Investing.com - Crude oil prices surged on Friday, as the previous day’s drop to a four-week low created bargain buying opportunities for investors reluctant to bet that prices would fall further amid growing optimism over the U.S. economy and lingering fears over a disruption to supplies from Iran.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May settled at USD107.72 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.55% over the week.

Crude prices came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday, dropping to USD104.29 a barrel, the lowest since February 17, after Reuters reported that the U.S. and the U.K. decided to cooperate to release strategic oil reserves to counter rising prices following Western sanctions against Iran.

But prices quickly retraced losses after White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said that no agreement was reached.

Prices moved higher on Friday, supported by a broadly weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.64% to settle at 80.08 by close of trade Friday.

The dollar’s losses came after the U.S. Department of Labor said consumer price inflation rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, fueled largely by pricier gasoline. Core inflation rates, which are stripped of volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, below expectations for a gain of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, positive oil demand data in the U.S. released earlier in the week pointed to further evidence of an improving U.S. economy, boosting future oil demand expectations from the world’s largest energy consumer.

Manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia rose to multi-month peaks in March, jobless claims matched a four-year low last week and retail sales rose in February.

The data supports the view that the U.S. economic recovery is gathering momentum, after the Federal Reserve upgraded its outlook on the economy earlier in the week.

Oil traders have been paying close attention to readings on U.S. employment levels and manufacturing figures because they offer insight into the economic health of the world's largest crude oil consumer.

An improving economy is generally correlated with increased demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline.

Meanwhile, market participants continued to monitor growing tensions between Iran and Western powers.

The leading worldwide financial messaging service for international money transfers said it will stop providing services to Iranian banks subject to European Union sanctions. Iran’s central bank is included in the list.

Iran and Western nations have been locked in a stand-off in recent months over Tehran's nuclear program.

Growing tensions between Iran and Israel also remain in focus. There are fears that an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran could set off a conflict across the region and send oil prices skyrocketing.

Iran produces about 3.5 million barrels of oil a day, making it the second largest oil producer in the OPEC, after Saudi Arabia.

Crude prices declined earlier in the week, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar and renewed concerns over China’s economic growth outlook.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

The International Energy Agency raised concerns over the short-term global energy demand outlook on Wednesday.

In its monthly report, the IEA said that global oil demand is expected to grow 0.9% in 2012, as a subdued economic backdrop and high oil prices "both restrain any upside momentum for consumption."

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for May delivery settled at USD126.06 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

The Brent contract rose 0.79% over the week, with the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts standing at USD18.34 a barrel.

Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report Thursday that global spare capacity is at “dangerously low levels” and oil-market fundamentals will tighten this year, pushing Brent prices to USD130 a barrel in 2013.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data on the housing sector, which investors will be watching closely to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.

Meanwhile, oil traders will continue to monitor tensions between Iran and the West and a potential disruption to oil supplies from the region.

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