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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: February 9 - 13

Published 02/08/2015, 07:58 AM
Updated 02/08/2015, 02:55 PM
© Reuters.  Crude oil futures post biggest weekly gains since 2011

Investing.com - Crude oil futures rallied more than $1 on Friday, with prices continuing to recover from recent lows as some investors bet that a bottom had been reached after a seven-month long rout.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March surged $1.21, or 2.4%, on Friday to end the week at $51.69 a barrel.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures climbed $4.10, or 7.15%, the second straight weekly gain and the biggest advance since February 2011.

Nymex oil prices are still down almost 52% from a recent peak of $107.50 hit in June.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for April delivery soared $1.17, or 2.03%, on Friday to settle at $58.68 a barrel by close of trade.

The April Brent contract rallied $6.00, or 9.08%, on the week, also the second consecutive weekly advance and the biggest increase since 2011.

London-traded Brent prices sky-rocketed 17.7% over the past two-weeks, the largest two-week gain since 1998. However, prices are still down approximately 50% since June, when futures climbed near $116.

The spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $6.99 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $4.75 in the preceding week.

Prices have been well-supported in recent sessions amid speculation productions cuts by drillers in the U.S and global oil companies will alleviate a glut in supplies.

Industry research group Baker Hughes said Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by another 87 in the past week to 1,136, the lowest since December 2011.

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The number of oil rigs has declined in 14 of the last 17 weeks since hitting an all-time high of 1,609 in mid-October.

The bullish news came after oil major BP (NYSE:BP) said earlier in the week that it would cut capital expenditure next year, following similar decisions by other major energy companies.

Oil prices have fallen sharply in recent months as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to cut output, while the U.S. pumped at the fastest pace in more than three decades, creating a glut in global supplies.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 257,000 jobs in January, far more than the 234,000 forecast by economists. December’s figure was revised to 329,000 from a previously reported 252,000.

While the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.7% last month from December’s 5.6%, hourly earnings and the participation rate both saw increases in January.

The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to start raising rates from near zero levels as early as June.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rallied 1.26% on Friday to end the week at 94.84.

The euro remained under pressure as concerns over Greek debt negotiations continued to weigh on market sentiment.

Standard and Poor’s downgraded Greece to B- from B late Friday, one notch above default, and kept the outlook at "negative", indicating that further ratings cuts are possible.

Over the weekend, China reported a trade surplus of $60.0 billion in January, compared to expectations for $48.9 billion and up from a surplus of $49.6 in December.

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Exports slumped 3.3% from a year earlier last month, missing expectations for a 6.3% increase, while imports tumbled 19.9%, much worse than forecasts for a decline of 3.0%.

The Asian nation is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

In the week ahead, the euro zone is to release what will be closely watched data on fourth quarter economic growth on Friday.

Investors will also be awaiting U.S. data on retail sales, jobless claims and consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, February 10

China is to report on consumer and producer price inflation.

Wednesday, February 11

The euro group of finance ministers is to meet in Brussels.

In the U.S., the government is to produce weekly oil supply data.

Thursday, February 12

The U.S. is to release reports on retail sales and initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 13

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on economic growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on consumer sentiment.

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