Speculators Anonymous

China’s economy continues to struggle 15 months after “reopening” from their COVID lockdowns (December 2022).Now, back then, many media pundits expected a booming Chinese recovery as...

Last spring, I wrote about the fragility in the auto lending market.And since then, it appears that the auto market is showing increased signs of stress. Especially so for the subprime area. Thus, I...

Over the last month, it appears that the crowd has now taken full swing from the economic ‘hard’ landing view to the ‘soft’ landing view.Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) came in...

While many media pundits focus on the conflicting jobs data and equity markets, there’s something else sending out warning signs.Something that’s been grossly ignored. I’m talking...

One of my favorite economic thinkers is Michael Mauboussin.His book – More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places – and various other ‘white papers’...

Banks have looked increasingly fragile over the last year.And besides three-of-the-four largest U.S. bank failures happening in early-2023, many feel like the worst is over. But I disagree. Because...

The oil price has taken a beating over the last year.Brent crude oil – used to set the price of about two-thirds of the world’s internationally traded oil supply – hit a cycle peak...

Over the last few months, the debt ceiling topic has dominated mainstream media.And for good reason. But let’s assume the debt ceiling’s going higher – even if it’s at the last...

Back in October, I wrote about the looming global earnings recession.And while the media’s busy focusing on the world’s banking issues (which will only amplify any economic downside), the...

Back in August, I wrote about the U.S. yield curve’s deep inversion and why it was important. I said, “. . .This is why the U.S. yield curve is so deeply inverted. Speculators believe the...

Many longtime readers know that I’ve remained bullish on U.S. bonds. Especially at the long end of the curve (the 5-year through 30-year).And I know many may be thinking – “bonds?...

Many longtime readers know that I’ve been very critical of the housing market after the massive boom in real estate prices post-COVID.And as we learned from the underrated Austrian economist...

A few weeks ago – I wrote an article highlighting the four major global indicators that show more economic downside ahead.And since then – things have only grown more fragile as the...

While the Federal Reserve continues trying to rein in prices with its aggressive tightening – macro-speculators are busy focusing on the yield curve. Which is now signaling serious trouble ahead...

Back in summer 2019, I wrote an article highlighting one of my favorite ways to measure market liquidity and what it means for speculators.I’m talking about the Chicago Fed’s National...

In early June I wrote an article highlighting China’s increasing fragility and the negative ripple-effects it would have on the world economy. To give you some context: I hypothesized that...