Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious Outperformance
Find Stocks Now

Yield Curve Steepening Could Ignite New Gold Rush

Published 06/23/2023, 03:04 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

I have written about the importance of a bear market, recession, and Fed shift for a gold bull market. But today, I want to be more precise.

There has to be a potential tipping point that precedes these catalysts. 

Markets anticipate the near future and slowly discount it as it becomes a probability and later a certainty.

In the chart below, we plot gold, gold against the stock market, the stock market, the United States 2-Year yield, and the yield curve (10-Year yield less the 2-year yield).

The red line marks the final rate hike, while the blue line marks the first rate cut (in that cycle). Focus on the gold to S&P 500 ratio, stock market peaks (black arrows), and the yield curve.

The gold to S&P 500 ratio did not gain traction to the upside until the first rate cut. The circles coincide with the rate cuts. Note the yield curve begins to steepen (turn higher) before the rate cut.

Concerning the stock market, every cycle is different, but the move from hikes to cuts because of a recession is very bearish, which is super bullish for precious metals. Gold Comparison Daily Chart

Since gold’s peak in May, bond yields have rebounded, and the stock market has broken out. The inversion in the yield curve has intensified. 

As you can see below (yellow), these things are moving against gold for now.

Gold Daily Chart

In short, the steepening of the yield curve will mark the turning point for the gold market because that precedes the start of rate cuts.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The yield curve began to steepen in the spring with the multiple bank failures, but the Fed was able to paper over that, and the economy has avoided recession for now.

The stock market should peak around the time the Fed ends its rate hikes. 

How quickly the yield curve steepens depends on the health of the economy. The closer we are to a recession, and the faster it hits means, the closer the yield curve is to steepening and gold starting its breakout move.  

Speculators and investors have time to research and uncover the best opportunities while they remain cheap. This correction is also the time to reconsider the strong stocks you missed. 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.