Asian equities recover mildly from yesterday's slump, following crude oil's rebound. WTI is back at around 36.9 at the time of writing, comparing to this week's low of 35.24. Nikkei is fluctuating between gain and loss in tight range. In the currency markets, Yen pares some gains but stays the strongest major currency for the week so far, followed by Swiss Franc and Dollar. Commodity currencies also recover following stocks but remain the weakest ones. Technically, USD/CAD is held below 1.3295 near term resistance while AUD/USD is held above 0.7476 near term support. There is no confirmation of reversal yet. But USD/JPY's break of 110.66 support yesterday could be seen as a sign of Yen strength and reversal of risk sentiments, which might drag down the commodity currencies later in the week.
In Japan, Reuters quoted unnamed source saying that BoJ would likely debate the possibility of further monetary easing at this month's meeting. In particular, the weak quarterly Tankan survey raised doubt on the effectiveness of BoJ's measures. The central bank surprised the markets by adopting negative interest rates back in January but the impact has been rather muted so far. But a point to note is that BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament yesterday that a "comprehensive look at various factors in deciding (the best mix of steps) at the time, including market moves, particularly those in Japan." The outcome of April's BoJ meeting is far from being certain.
In Europe, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said that "economic considerations clearly argue in favour of British EU membership." And, "should it come to Brexit, we will have to hold difficult exit negotiations." German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble complained that "it's a problem of our common currency union that we have ... an independent central bank -- which conducts unified monetary policy for 19 member states -- that is less favorable for Germany than for other countries."
FOMC minutes will be the main focus today and all market participants would hope to have some more clues on the rate path of Fed. So far, comments from Fed officials delivered mixed messages. Fed chair Janet Yellen emphasized last week that the rate path would be gradual. But there were also officials like San Francisco Fed president John Williams and Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart saying that April hike is still on the table. Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren said that markets were too "pessimistic" in the pricing. Currently, Fed fund futures are only pricing in 20% change of June hike, 39% for September and 54% by December.