Why Pentair (PNR) Stock Could Disappoint In Q1 Earnings

Pentair plc (NYSE:PNR) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2017 results on Apr 25, before the market opens.

Year to date, the company’s shares yielded a return of 11% return, outperforming the 8.7% growth recorded by the Zacks categorized Machinery-Thermal Products industry.

Also, the company performed well in the last four quarters, beating estimates on all occasions, with an average positive earnings surprise of 5.04%. Let us see how things are shaping up for Pentair this quarter.

Pentair PLC. Price and EPS Surprise

Pentair PLC. Price and EPS Surprise | Pentair PLC. Quote

Factors Influencing Q1

Pentair expects first-quarter 2017 revenues to be approximately $1.14 billion, which would be down approximately 4% on a reported and core basis compared to first-quarter 2016 revenues. Earnings per share are estimated to be about 61 cents for the first quarter, flat with the prior-year figure.

Pentair expects volume, inclusive of one dairy job in Water and three large oil sands jobs in Electrical, to affect revenue by about 4 points. Excluding the impact of large jobs, the company predicts volume to be down around 2 points.

Despite the favorable outlook for end markets, Pentair is likely to experience differing levels of volatility, depending on the end market. The company’s results will also be hurt by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and material and other cost inflation.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Pentair is likely to beat on earnings this quarter as it does not possess the key components. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Pentair currently has an Earnings ESP of -15.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is pegged at 51 cents, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Pentair’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) has an Earnings ESP of +9.84% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE:PH) has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #1.

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