Interestingly, over the past six years gold and silver have not been correlated to rising inflation expectations. They have appeared to lead inflation expectations by several months. Recent increases in inflation expectations have led to rising real interest rates, which is bearish for gold and silver.
The last time inflation expectations peaked and rolled over was the summer of 2018 when gold and silver bottomed.
The bond market is telling us growth and inflation will roll over this year, which means the Fed will have to pause its rate hikes. Although real interest rates are rising, the gold and silver market may be thinking that rise is unsustainable.