June gold settles 1230.0, down $5.80 for the week of April 22, 2016
Gold prices ranged up sharply this week only to see the rallies sold into as the dollar recovered. There was some chatter that Thursday’s rally that pushed gold to a weekly high to 1272.0 basis June futures was a blow-off top, due to the reversal that occurred later in the day. Technically it looked that a decline in open interest and a rise in volume over this past week suggests that many longs booked profits. There is a net long in the market this week of 260,000 contracts which in my view has the market somewhat overbought.
In silver the net long position this week is 73K contracts and the jump in silver from low to high is over $2.00 for the month which has been impressive. Profit taking late this week is not surprising in the metals sector given the enormity of two events next week. First, the FOMC policy statement out Wednesday afternoon on the economy and a policy meeting from the Bank of Japan. Besides Fed statements and action next week traders will be watching data on new home sales on Monday, durables and consumer confidence on Tuesday, and jobless claims and GDP on Thursday.
Weekly Swing #s GCJ 16 for the week of April 25th through April 29th
Resistance#2- 1287.0
Resistance#1- 1258.3
Pivot- 1243.5
Support#1- 1215.0
Support#2- 1200.0