Gold – Closed Bearish on Friday, But Strong Rejection
After meeting the typical 8am EST gold smackdown where the precious metal is hammered without mercy, the precious metal was forming a short term consolidation just above 1290, when the news of a Russian vehicle being destroyed by Ukraine sparked a risk off event, and thus spiking gold higher.
Although the precious metal closed red for the day, it did recover a fair amount of lost ground, taking back the 1300 level to close just above it. Bulls will be nervous here, because much of the gains were likely predicated on the risk off event, but if we see another round of heavy selling in early London, or around 8am NY time, then expect a second attack on 1290, and potentially a move lower to 1283.
Bulls will need to retake the key resistance at 1312 before regaining any confidence in the upside.
S&P 500 – With Trend Pin Bar
Closing bullish for the last 4 of 6 trading days, the S&P 500 has formed another V-bottom rejection, which I’m sure is making bears nervous and perhaps ready to capitulate. To close last week, the US index formed a with trend pin bar, but this is in front of heavy resistance above.
For now, use Friday’s high and low to mark your next direction intra-day. If we get a break above the highs, and the risk off sentiment weakens, then the bulls will keep pushing, trying to take out 1965, and gun for the resistance zone around 1986. However if the short term support at 1940 fails, then we could see a round-trip back to 1900, which would only embolden the bears, for it would mark the first major LH (lower high) in the never ending uptrend.
German Dax – If Any Is The Most…
While the FTSE 100 ticked on for a 6th bullish close in a row, the Dax got hammered on last Friday’s risk off event in Ukraine, dropping almost 300 points from the highs before recovering.
Notice how the EU index winked at the 20 EMA, then sold off heavy right to the 9066 support from our last profitable buy trade setup, then bounced about 70 points into the close?
For now, we are in a corrective price action structure as outlined in the chart, with the upside short term resistance being the 20 EMA and the 9066 holding the line for the bulls. A break in either direction either signals a move down to 8900, or a continued bull run up to 9600 before running into more sellers.
