Weekly Forex Outlook: October 1-5

We are staring a new month and the final quarter of 2018. Will there be new trends at the currency market? Let’s see what trading opportunities await us during the next few days.

What lies ahead for the USD?

The US central bank raised interest rates and maintained its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy. A rate hike is a rate hike, and the Federal Reserve stand aside from many other central banks which still haven’t started increasing rates. This helps the USD recover. Moreover, the final data confirmed that American economy expanded at the fastest pace in 4 years.

If the USD index settles above 95.00, it will get a chance to return to 95.70 and 96.00.

Will the EUR recover?

The euro was shaken by concerns about Italy. This third largest economy of the euro area has a large debt. Italian government agreed on a budget that can boost its debt even further. The news surprised the market and made EUR/USD fall. If Italy’s Finance Minister Giovanni Tria resigns, the EUR will suffer more. In addition, although the ECB president Mario Draghi spoke about higher inflation, the actual data release disappointed the market.

EUR/USD broke the support line and can target 1.1550 and 1.15. Resistance is at 1.1650 and 1.1720.

Economic events to watch

No calm for the GBP. Britain’s Conservative Party will hold its annual conference from Sunday, September 30, to Wednesday, October 3. Traders will watch it with great attention to see whether Prime Minister Theresa May can win the political battle. We expect news and announcements during all days of the conference. The culmination will be around May’s speech on Wednesday that will start at 12:00 MT time.

GBP/USD formed a lower high and may test support at 1.2980 and 1.2935. Resistance is at 1.3150. The release of British PMI indexes can also move the GBP.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to change interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday. The positive impact on the AUD is unlikely.

On Friday, October 5, the US will release Nonfarm Payrolls. This indicator, also known as NFP, tends to have a great impact on the USD in all major pairs, especially EUR/USD and USD/JPY.