Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of September 7th through September 11th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 7th through September 11th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, September 7th
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 1.0% versus last -0.5%. The currency rose.
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 540B versus last 531B. The currency rose.
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
Tuesday, September 8th
12:50am JPY Current Account 1.32T versus 1.25T expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Final GDP -0.3% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 1 versus last 4. The currency rose.
4:04am CNY Trade Balance 60.2B versus 48.6B expected.
Wednesday, September 9th
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -5.6% versus last 7.8%. The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Home Loans 0.3% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
3:00am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, “With the US and Chinese economies being in different phases of the business cycle, it is unsurprising that the Chinese authorities might have come to the conclusion that greater flexibility of the renminbi against the US dollar was warranted. Notably, a move in this direction is also consistent with the authorities' long-standing goal of transitioning to a more market-determined exchange rate. While the change in the Chinese exchange rate also attracted much attention, the magnitude of the change does need to be kept in some perspective. At around 3 per cent, the recent depreciation is hardly out of line with the short-term movements that are sometimes seen among the major freely floating currencies of the world. These developments in the Chinese financial markets have coincided with signs of some further slowing in the Chinese economy.”
The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production -0.8% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -11.1B versus -9.5B expected. The currency fell.
10:00am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, ““We are not trying to reinvent the wheel in this code, but build on what's there. There clearly needs to be a significant rebuilding of confidence in the way this market functions.” The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Building Permits -0.6% versus -4.7% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, . The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5% versus last 0.6%. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.75M versus 5.30M expected. The currency rose.
10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.75% versus 2.75% expected. The currency fell.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, “Headline inflation is expected to return well within the target range by early 2016, as the earlier petrol price decline drops out of the annual inflation calculation, and as the exchange rate depreciation passes through into higher tradables prices. Considerable uncertainty exists around the timing and magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through. A reduction in the OCR is warranted by the softening in the economy and the need to keep future average CPI inflation near the 2 percent target midpoint. At this stage, some further easing in the OCR seems likely. This will depend on the emerging flow of economic data.” The currency fell.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “Global economic growth remains moderate, but the outlook has been revised down due mainly to weaker activity in the developing economies. Concerns about softer growth, particularly in China and East Asia, have led to elevated volatility in financial markets and renewed falls in commodity prices. The US economy continues to expand. Financial markets remain uncertain as to the timing and impact of an expected tightening in US monetary policy.” The currency fell.
10:05pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference: Governor Graeme Wheeler said that, “In the end we agree on a set of forecasts and make the monetary policy decision. In essence there's a committee of 12 people that give advice to the four governors. The four governors then make the decision. There's no example, at least in the past decade, of the governor not taking a decision consistent with the recommendation of the committee.” The currency fell.
Thursday, September 10th
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders -3.6% versus 3.4% expected. The currency rose.
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.2% versus last 3.7%. The currency rose.
2:10am RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, “Last year when we started to raise rates we were the only country in the world running positive output gaps. At the time we raised rates, in terms of the data we had, I believe they were the right decisions.” The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Employment Change 17.4K versus 5.2K expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 6.2% versus 6.2% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am CNY CPI 2.0% versus 1.9% expected.
2:30am CNY PPI -5.9% versus -5.6% expected.
8:00am GBP Halifax HPI 2.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1-0-8 versus 1-0-8 expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary noted that, “At the Committee’s meeting ending on 9 September the majority of members judged that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate. Ian McCafferty preferred to increase Bank Rate by 25 basis points, given his view that building domestic cost pressures would otherwise be likely to lead to inflation overshooting the target in the medium term. All members agree that, given the likely persistence of the headwinds weighing on the economy, when Bank Rate does begin to rise, it is expected to do so more gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles. This guidance is an expectation, not a promise. The actual path that Bank Rate will follow over the next few years will depend on the economic circumstances.” The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 275K versus 279K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Import Prices -1.8% versus -1.7% expected. The currency rose.
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.6M versus 0.9M expected. The currency rose.
Friday, September 11th
12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 11.0 versus -1.9 expected. The currency fell.
Day 1 EUR ECOFIN Meetings: Jonathan Hill, European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union said that, “This year we should see growth in 27 out of 28 Member States. Unemployment is falling. Our exports are competitively priced. We have a single market of some 500 million people, without tariff barriers, where workers, goods, services and capital can all move freely. We enjoy the rule of law which underpins investment. We have an educated workforce that produces goods and services the world wants to buy. We have world class universities and researchers, helping us to innovate to make our economy more productive and resilient. These are the foundations on which we now need to build. And this is, of course, exactly what the Commission has been doing. It is why we have had a new drive on the single market to encourage a more competitive Europe. It's why we have a strong competition policy to make sure that the single market is fair and open. It's why we have a big push on free trade – with the US, yes, where the potential prize is huge. But also with Canada, with Vietnam, with Japan.” The currency rose.
12:30pm GBP MPC Member Forbes said that, “The magnitude of recent exchange rate movements has highlighted how important these movements are for an economy and the ability of companies to compete internationally. Sterling’s effective exchange rate has appreciated 17% since its recent trough in the spring of 2013. The U.S. dollar has appreciated by about 20% over the same period, while the euro has weakened by 7%. The yen has been on a downward trend for even longer – depreciating more than 30% since June 2012. Many emerging markets have also seen their currencies weaken sharply – such as the Turkish lira which has depreciated by 30% and the Brazilian real by 42% since the start of the year (both against the dollar).” The currency fell.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.0% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 85.7 versus 91.4 expected. The currency rose.
Saturday, September 12th
Day 2 EUR ECOFIN Meetings have not yet occurred.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings have not yet occurred.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.11564 open to a 1.13381 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 118.958 open to 120.662 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.51779 open to a 1.54284 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.69129 open to 0.70759 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.32540 open to a 1.32755 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.6290 open to a 0.6312 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.