Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of October 5th through October 9th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of October 5th through October 9th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, October 4th
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
Monday, October 5th
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
1:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 3.9% versus last 1.3%. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 53.3 versus 56.4 expected. The currency fell.
Day 1 EUR Eurogroup Meetings: J. Dijsselbloem, President of the Eurogroup said that,
“First let me fill you in on Greece. We took stock of the latest developments. Of course we welcomed the swift formation of the new government. And welcomed the strong commitment of the Greek authorities to implement the programme. A lot of work remains to be done in the coming months. So it is very important to maintain that strong reform momentum. And I think maintaining that attitude of reform is crucial to regain trust inside and outside Greece. So it is crucial for economic recovery.”
The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 versus 58.0 expected. The currency rose.
10:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence -14 versus last 5. The currency rose.
Tuesday, October 6th
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
1:30am AUD Trade Balance -3.10B versus -2.48B expected. The currency rose.
4:30am AUD Cash Rate Decision: unchanged at 2.00% versus 2.00% expected. The currency rose.
4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that,
“The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices. The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Further information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's ongoing assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.”
The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders -1.8% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am GBP Halifax HPI -0.9% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: Pierre Gramegna, Minister of Finance of Luxembourg, and president of the Council, speaking on measures against corporate tax avoidance noted that,
“This is a decisive step towards greater transparency in tax matters, the presidency managed to obtain this agreement in record time. Europe is sending a strong signal for greater equity in taxation of businesses worldwide.”
The currency rose.
Day 2 EUR Eurogroup Meetings: The Eurogroup Statement on the ESM Program for Greece stated that,
“The Eurogroup welcomes the wide scope of the policy measures contained in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which, if implemented with determination, will address the main challenges facing the Greek economy. We are confident that decisive and as swift as possible implementation of the reform measures as spelled out in the MoU will allow the Greek economy to return to a sustainable growth path based on sound public finances, enhanced competitiveness, high employment and financial stability.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -2.5B versus -1.1B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -48.3B versus -47.6B expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 53.7 versus 54.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:49pm NZD GDT Price Index 9.9% versus last 16.5%. The currency rose.
6:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that,
“Art is part of European history, of European heritage at its best. It also reminds us that values are not only monetary. This is why the ECB, like most central banks around the world, collects works of art. Since the beginning our focus has been on contemporary art. Today, our collection consists of 320 works created by 170 artists from 20 countries. It includes paintings, drawings, photographs, sculpture and object art.”
The currency rose.
10:30pm USD FOMC Member Williams said that,
“In addition, an earlier start to raising rates would allow us to engineer a smoother, more gradual process of policy normalization. That would give us space to fine-tune our responses to react to economic conditions. In contrast, raising rates too late would force us into the position of a steeper and more abrupt path of rate hikes, which doesn’t leave much room for maneuver. Not to mention, it could roil financial markets and slow the economy in unintended ways.”
The currency fell.
Wednesday, October 7th
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
4:00am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
“With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is expected to continue recovering moderately. The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices. Risks to the outlook include developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, the prospects regarding the debt problem and the momentum of economic activity and prices in Europe, and the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy. Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) has been exerting its intended effects, and the Bank will continue with QQE, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner.”
The currency fell.
7:31am JPY BOJ Press Conference: Governor Kuroda said that,
“Our economy has certainly seen some impact on exports and production from the slowdown in emerging markets, but as confirmed by last week’s Tankan survey, companies remain positive on investment against a backdrop of record profitability”.
The currency fell.
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 542B versus last 540B. The currency rose.
8:05am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that,
“The risk-free yield should approximate the growth rate of the economy. On that basis, the government bond yield is still doing a pretty good job."
The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Building Permits -3.7% versus -0.5% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5% versus last 0.5%. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.1M versus last 2.2M. The currency rose.
Thursday, October 8th
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders -5.7% versus 3.3% expected. The currency fell.
12:50am JPY Current Account 1.59T versus 1.28T expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1-0-8 versus 1-0-8 expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary noted that,
“At the Committee’s meeting ending on 6 October, the majority of members judged that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate. Ian McCafferty preferred to increase Bank Rate by 25 basis points, given his view that building domestic cost pressures were likely to come to outweigh the dampening influence of the appreciation of sterling, causing inflation to overshoot the 2% target in the medium term. All members agreed that the likely persistence of the headwinds restraining economic growth following the financial crisis means that, when Bank Rate does begin to rise, it is expected to do so more gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles. Such guidance, however, is an expectation and not a promise: the path that Bank Rate will actually follow over the next few years will depend on economic circumstances.”
The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency rose.
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts noted that,
“Regarding exchange rates, the euro had appreciated in terms of its nominal effective exchange rate against the currencies of major trading partners. It had also strengthened to an intraday high of 1.17 against the US dollar on 24 August before falling back to USD 1.125 on 1 September. The moves were attributed to the lower probability of an imminent rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee in the light of international developments, as well as to the unwinding of carry trades funded in euro, as confirmed by the reduced short positions in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly data.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 263K versus 274K expected. The currency fell.
7:00pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that,
“We will determine the timing for the start of the process of monetary policy normalisation consistent with UK [conditions],” and that the FOMC’s decisions “are tactical considerations around the exact timing [of a rate rise], as opposed to the strategic orientation of monetary policy in the US and the UK which, given the domestic strength, is consistent with the prospect of limited and gradual rate increase over time.”
The currency rose.
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that,
“After assessing the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation and weighing the uncertainties associated with the outlook, all but one member concluded that, although the U.S. economy had strengthened and labor underutilization had diminished, economic conditions did not warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting”.
The currency fell.
8:30pm USD FOMC Member Williams said that,
“I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time.”
The currency fell.
Friday, October 9th
1:30am AUD Home Loans 2.9% versus 4.9% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -11.1B versus -10.0B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 10.5K versus last 12.0K. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 6.9% versus last 7.0%. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Import Prices -0.5% versus -1.8%. The currency fell.
2:10pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart has not yet spoken.
3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey has not been released.
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Evans has not yet spoken.
10:15pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann has yet to speak.
Saturday, October 10th
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Shafik will speak.
7:45pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz will speak.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.12177 open to a 1.13501 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 119.974 open to 120.268 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.51955 open to a 1.53276 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.70540 open to 0.73139 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.31461 open to a 1.29802 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.64560 open to a 0.66922 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.