Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 16th through November 20th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 16th through November 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, November 15th
All Day ALL G20 Meetings: Donald Tusk, President of the European Council noted that,
“The displacement and mass movement of refugees and migrants is a global concern. We agreed that international protection must be granted to those entitled to it, in line with international law. Effective management of borders and fighting against migrant smuggling networks remain essential, as well as tackling the root causes of the current migration and refugee crisis.”
The currency rose.
9:45pm NZD Retail Sales 1.6% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
9:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales 1.0% versus 1.4% expected. The currency rose.
11:50pm JPY Preliminary GDP -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
Monday, November 16th
All Day ALL G20 Meetings: U.S. President Barack Obama noted that,
“Of course, the attacks in Paris remind us that it will not be enough to defeat ISIL in Syria and Iraq alone. Here in Antalya, our nations, therefore, committed to strengthening border controls, sharing more information, and stepping up our efforts to prevent the flow of foreign fighters in and out of Syria and Iraq.”
The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Final CPI 0.1% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
10:15am EUR ECB President Draghi said that,
“If we conclude that the balance of risks to our medium-term price stability objective is skewed to the downside, we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate,” adding that the ECB considers the bond facility “to be a powerful and flexible instrument, as it can be adjusted in terms of size, composition or duration to achieve a more expansionary policy stance”.
The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales -1.5% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 3.35B versus 4.12B expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -10.7 versus -5.3 expected. The currency rose.
9:30pm AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that,
“Given its importance to the Australian economy, the Bank monitors developments in China closely with a team of economists in both Sydney and Beijing. The easing in the growth of the Chinese economy over the past year or so has two related parts. The economy is slowing as it matures, and this is to be expected. Overlaying that, there has been a substantial slowing in the industrial sector, linked in part to earlier excesses in construction. How all of this will play out and the effects on the Australian economy are uncertain.”
The currency fell.
Tuesday, November 17th
12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that,
“The US dollar was little changed over October, with intra-month movements mainly reflecting changing expectations for monetary policy in the major jurisdictions. The depreciation of the US dollar against the euro earlier in the month had been retraced following the ECB's policy meeting and the US dollar had appreciated further against the euro following the FOMC's most recent meeting. The renminbi was unchanged against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms over the past month. The Australian dollar had also been little changed against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms over the past month.”
The currency rose.
2:00am NZD Inflation Expectations 1.9% versus last 1.9%. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP CPI -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP PPI Input 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP RPI 0.7% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 10.4 versus 6.7 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 28.3 versus 35.2 expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
2:07pm NZD GDT Price Index -7.9% versus last -7.4%. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.5% versus 77.5% expected. The currency rose.
2:15pm USD Industrial Production -0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.99% versus last 5.30%. The currency rose.
10:15pm AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that,
“As the RBA's operational target for monetary policy and the reference rate for OIS and other financial contracts, the cash rate is another systemic benchmark. Consequently, we are making sure that our methodology for the cash rate is also in line with the IOSCO benchmark principles. We are in the process of ensuring that our data collection is capturing all cash market trades appropriately and that we can match data from both sides of the transactions. This will entail a few changes but we do not expect these to have any material impact on the calculated outcome for the cash rate.”
The currency rose.
Wednesday, November 18th
12:30am AUD Wage Price Index 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that,
“We are four weeks away from the December meeting of the FOMC. I won't predict the outcome. There are more data points to evaluate over the next four weeks. I will be processing that information to see whether the incoming data change my sense of the health and momentum of the economy — said differently, whether the data broadly support or undermine my base case outlook.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.15M versus 1.15M expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Housing Starts 1.06M versus 1.16M expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.3M versus 2.0M expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that,
“A number of participants pointed to various reasons why the Committee should avoid a delay in policy firming. One concern was that such a delay, if the reasons were not well understood by market participants could increase uncertainty in financial markets and unduly magnify the perceived importance of the beginning of the policy normalization process.”
The currency rose.
9:45pm NZD PPI Input 1.6% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, November 19th
3:17am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
“Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately, although exports and production have been affected by the slowdown in emerging economies. Overseas economies — mainly advanced economies —have continued to grow at a moderate pace, despite the slowdown in emerging economies. Exports and industrial production have recently been more or less flat, due mainly to the effects of the slowdown in emerging economies.”
The currency fell.
6:31am JPY BOJ Press Conference: BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted that, “In the long term, prices won’t rise if wages don’t rise.” Mr. Kuroda continued saying, “We’ll be watching over next year’s wage round with the greatest of interest.” The currency fell.
8:00am EUR German Buba President Weidmann said that,
“The euro area’s growth engine is not firing on all cylinders. The euro area’s tyres have lost pressure - that is, Europe’s banks have reduced their leverage. And although the lowering in the form of fiscal consolidation has been crucial to prevent the euro area from careening off the road, at the same time, the reduced ground clearance makes it harder to cushion bumps - meaning that it may become more difficult to respond fiscally to negative economic developments in the euro area.”
The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Retail Sales -0.6% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts noted that,
“The change in market expectations regarding US monetary policy had supported risk sentiment globally. Equity market indices had bounced back from their September lows, emerging market currencies had stabilised and implied volatilities had started to decrease across market segments. Brent crude oil prices had temporarily rebounded to above USD 50 per barrel. Moreover, beyond their direct impact on euro area government bond yields, developments in the United States had had an indirect impact on the euro area through the expectations channel.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales -0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 271K versus 272K expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 1.9 versus 0.1 expected. The currency fell.
5:30pm CHF Governor Board Member Maechler said that,
“I wish to stress that at its current level the franc remains significantly overvalued,” she continued saying, “Generally we’re of the opinion that the economy is again on the path of moderate recovery, but there are significant downward risks. These stem particularly from the fragile international environment and exchange rate developments.”
The currency fell.
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that, “I’m comfortable with moving off zero soon,” adding that it was “appropriate to begin a new policy phase” and that the “economic outlook is positive.” The currency fell.
9:45pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that,
“In the relatively near future probably some major central banks will begin gradually moving away from near-zero interest rates. The question here is whether the emerging market countries of Asia--and, indeed, of the world — are sufficiently prepared for these decisions, to the extent that potential capital flows and market adjustments can take place without major macroeconomic consequences. While we continue to scrutinize incoming data, and no final decisions have been made, we have done everything we can to avoid surprising the markets and governments when we move, to the extent that several emerging market (and other) central bankers have, for some time, been telling the Fed to "just do it.”
The currency fell.
Friday, November 20th
8:00am EUR ECB President Draghi said that,
“We consider the asset purchase programme to be a powerful and flexible instrument, as it can be adjusted in terms of size, composition or duration to achieve a more expansionary stance. The level of the deposit facility rate can also empower the transmission of APP, not least by increasing the velocity of circulation of bank reserves. If we decide that the current trajectory of our policy is not sufficient to achieve our objective, we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible. That is what our price stability mandate requires of us.”
The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 7.5B versus 5.5B expected. The currency fell.
10:15am EUR German Buba President Weidmann said that,
“While growth has recovered somewhat from the fallout of the crisis, it is still less than impressive. But the way to higher growth does not lead through cosmetic changes and quick fixes. We will only get there if we tear down the still existing barriers to product, services, digital, and labour markets and include those who are currently sitting on the economic sidelines. And even then, we might not completely reach the speed of pre-crisis years, as those were driven by unsustainable growth in leverage.”
The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus last 0.2%. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -0.3% versus last 0.0%. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD CPI 0.1% versus last -0.2%. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Retail Sales 0.1% versus last 0.5%. The currency rose.
4:15pm USD FOMC Member Dudley has not yet spoken. Hawkish comments will benefit the currency.
Saturday, November 21st
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams has not yet spoken. Hawkish comments will benefit the currency.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.07384 open to a 1.06699 close.
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 122.222 open to 122.822 close
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.52240 open to a 1.52179 close.
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.71164 open to 0.72408 close.
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.33016 open to a 1.33092 close.
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.65391 open to a 0.65627 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.