The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of May 4th through May 8th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone. The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday May 4th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Building Approvals 2.8% versus -1.7% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 2.3% versus -1.3% expected. The currency rose.
2:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 48.9 versus 49.4 expected.
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.2 versus 54.6 expected. The currency fell.
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53.8 versus 53.4 expected. The currency fell.
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 versus 51.9 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Factory Orders 2.1% versus 2.1% expected. The currency fell.
5:25pm USD FOMC Member Evans said that,
“To give you the punchline, I think the outlook for growth in economic activity and the labor market is good. However, inflation is too low, and I expect it will be so for some time. Based on this forecast, and the risks to the outlook, I think the FOMC should refrain from raising the federal funds rate (our traditional short-term interest rate policy tool) until there is much greater confidence that inflation one or two years ahead will be at our 2 percent target. I see no compelling reason for us to be in a hurry to tighten financial conditions until then.”
The currency fell.
Tuesday May 5th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Trade Balance -1.32B versus -0.98B expected. The currency rose.
5:30am AUD Cash Rate 2.00% versus 2.00% expected. The currency rose.
5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that,
“The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. At today's meeting, the Board judged that the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.”
The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 118.9K versus -64.8K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 54.2 versus 57.6 expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts noted that,
“Economic growth in the European Union is benefitting from positive economic tailwinds. According to the European Commission's Spring 2015 Economic Forecast, these short-term factors are boosting an otherwise mild cyclical upswing in the EU. Europe’s economies are benefitting from many supporting factors at once. Oil prices remain relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to depreciate, and economic policies in the EU are supportive.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -3.0B versus -0.8B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -51.4B versus -41.2B expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.8 versus 56.2 expected. The currency rose.
3:20pm NZD GDT Price Index -3.5% versus -3.6% expected. The currency rose.
5:45pm CAD Governor Council Member Wilkins said that,
“A solid economy rests on reliable funding and market liquidity, if we all do our part, a more robust financial system will emerge to the benefit of the people it ultimately serves: businesses and households who save and borrow.”
The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.7% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 5.8% versus 5.5% expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday May 6th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
2:45am CNY HSBC Services PMI 52.9 versus 53.1 expected.
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 60.3 versus 57.4 expected. The currency rose.
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 53.1 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 54.0 versus 54.4 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 59.5 versus 58.6 expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Retail Sales -0.8% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 169K versus 199K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity -1.9% versus -1.8% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary Unit Labor Costs 5.0% versus 4.5% expected. The currency rose.
2:15pm USD Fed Chair Yellen said that,
"I would like to highlight the important contributions that the financial sector makes to the economy and society. First and foremost, financial institutions channel society's scarce savings to productive investments, thereby promoting business formation and job creation. Access to capital is important for all firms, but it is particularly vital for startups and young firms, which often lack a sufficient stream of earnings to increase employment and internally finance capital spending. Indeed, research shows that more highly developed financial systems disproportionately benefit entrepreneurship."
The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 58.2 versus 50.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Mortgage Delinquencies 5.54% versus 5.68% expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.9 M versus 1.3 M expected. The currency rose.
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that,
“As support for growing consumer activity, I will be looking this Friday to see if job gains resume the robust monthly increases we saw prior to March, and over the coming weeks and months, I will be looking for direct confirming evidence that consumer spending is accelerating. For policymaking purposes, the relevant timeframe has been foreshortened, central to my own assessment of the sustainability of progress toward these objectives will be my confidence that growth is back on track.”
The currency rose.
Thursday May 7th
2:30am AUD Employment Change -2.9K versus 4.5K expected. The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 6.2% versus 6.2% expected. The currency fell.
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders 0.9% versus 1.6% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 521.9B versus 522.3B expected. The currency rose.
All Day GBP Parliamentary Elections, Labour Party leader Ed Miliband noted that,
“Now the results are still coming in, but this has clearly been a very disappointing and difficult night for the Labour Party, we haven’t made the gains that we wanted in England and Wales and in Scotland we have seen a surge of nationalism overwhelm our party.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Building Permits 11.6% versus 2.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 265K versus 277K expected. The currency rose.
Friday May 8th
12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that,
"In the money market, interest rates on both overnight and term instruments continued to be at low levels. The uncollateralized overnight call rate and general collateral (GC) repo rates had been at levels below 0.1 percent, the interest rate applied to the Bank's complementary deposit facility. As for interest rates on term instruments, yields on treasury discount bills (T-Bills) had generally been at around 0 percent.”
The currency rose.
2:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
3:10am CNY Trade Balance 34.1B versus 34.5B expected.
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
8:00am GBP Halifax HPI 1.6% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
8:15am CHF CPI -0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -10.1B versus -9.8B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -4.5K versus 28.7K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 6.9% versus 6.8% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 228K versus 116K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 5.4 versus 5.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
2:45pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
"In my remarks today, I will focus on the outlook for the Bronx, the important role that community banks play in the local economy, as well as specific challenges facing local small businesses. It is important to recognize that small businesses play a vital role in any economy, so fostering economic and financial conditions that allow these businesses to flourish is important to the health of the local economy. In light of recent developments, I am optimistic about the economic prospects for the Bronx and local small businesses."
The currency rose.
Saturday May 9th
2:30am CNY CPI 1.6% versus 1.4% expected. Data is not yet released.
2:30am CNY PPI -4.6% versus -4.6% expected. Data is not yet released.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Virtually unchanged from a 1.11930 open to a 1.11932 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 120.231 open to 119.873 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.51393 open to a 1.53667 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.78327 open to a 0.78903 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 1.21604 open to a 1.21370 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.7525 open to a 0.7449 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.