Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of May 16th through May 20th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of May 16th through May 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, May 16th
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -9.0 versus 7.2 expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, May 17th
2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar had continued to depreciate gradually, with a cumulative depreciation of about 6 per cent since mid January. The Chinese renminbi had also continued to edge lower; the effective exchange rate had depreciated partly because of the appreciation of the yen, which has a significant weight in China's trade-weighted basket. Members noted there was evidence that capital outflows from China had abated in recent months. The Australian dollar appreciated during the first part of the month following the rise in commodity prices, before depreciating sharply following the release of the March quarter CPI data.” The currency rose.
4:00am NZD Inflation Expectations 1.6% versus last 1.6%. The currency rose.
8:15am CHF PPI 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP CPI 0.3% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP PPI Input 0.9% versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP RPI 1.3% versus 1.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales -0.9% versus -0.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.12M versus 1.13M expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD CPI 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Housing Starts 1.17M versus 1.12M expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 75.4% versus 75.1% expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Industrial Production 0.7% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
3:15pm NZD GDT Price Index 2.6% versus last -1.4%. The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD PPI Input -1.0% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, May 18th
12:50am JPY Preliminary GDP 0.4% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
2:05am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, “Deep hedging markets allow Australian firms to hedge foreign currency risk relatively cheaply. This is important because Australia's history of current account deficits means that it has accumulated a fairly large net foreign liability position. In the absence of hedging, this could be problematic were the Australian dollar to depreciate significantly. But after taking hedging into account, Australia has a positive net foreign currency asset position.” The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Wage Price Index 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 2.0% versus 1.7% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -2.4K versus 4.0K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5.1% versus 5.1% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Final CPI -0.2% versus -0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 17.17B versus 10.35B expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M versus -3.1M expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, “Against the backdrop of its discussion of current conditions, the economic outlook, and the risks and uncertainties surrounding the outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent at this meeting. Members generally agreed that, in light of the recent weak readings on spending and production, and with inflation below the Committee's objective, it would be prudent to wait for additional information bearing on the medium-term outlook before deciding whether to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” The currency rose.
8:00pm GBP MPC Member Haldane said that, “The most important and compelling message the Bank received at the Open Forum came in the first session. The Bank had conducted some polling of perceptions of the financial sector – for example, by asking people what one word best described the future of financial markets. Among the Bank’s usual contacts, including those in the financial sector, the most used word was “regulated”. Many of us will have heard that message from financial insiders concerned about the perils of over-zealous regulators. . The currency rose.
Thursday, May 19th
2:30am AUD Employment Change 10.8K versus 12.1K expected. The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.7% versus 5.8% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts noted that, “It was highlighted that the monetary stimulus introduced since mid-2014 had led to a significant and broad-based easing in borrowing conditions for the economy as a whole. Further improvements in financing conditions had been seen following the adoption of the comprehensive measures at the early-March monetary policy meeting. In addition, the pass-through of the monetary policy stimulus appeared to be strengthening, notably through the banking system.” The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales -1.0% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -1.8 versus 3.2 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 278K versus 276K expected. The currency rose.
2:15pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that, “The very powerful effects of forward guidance have been called "the forward guidance puzzle". But the puzzle is not a deep one, for the ability of any central bank to commit to follow a particular monetary policy rule must be a diminishing function of the length of the horizon that is being considered. This fact serves to limit the extent to which policy can deliberately shape private expectations. However, the strength of forward guidance is just one manifestation of a very high interest elasticity in the DSGE models typically used by Woodford that shows up pervasively.” The currency rose.
3:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “We are on track to satisfy a lot of the conditions” for a Fed rate increase, and that, “If I am convinced that my own forecast is sort of on track, then I think a tightening in the summer, the June-July time frame is a reasonable expectation” . The currency rose.
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Vlieghe said that, “The fact that inflation expectations have been broadly stable suggests that monetary policy has been appropriately responding to persistent forces weighing on demand and inflation. If inflation expectations had been declining, that would be indicative of monetary policy providing insufficient stimulus. If inflation expectations had been increasing, it would indicate too much monetary stimulus. But yield curve patterns suggest that market participants on average consider that the monetary stimulus in the UK has been “about right” to achieve the inflation target, and will continue to be ‘about right’.” The currency rose.
Friday, May 20th
Day 1 ALL G7 Meetings
1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -0.3% versus -0.4% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD CPI 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Retail Sales -1.0 % versus -0.7% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.45M versus 5.40M expected. The currency rose.
Saturday, May 21st
Day 2 ALL G7 Meetings
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.13081 open to a 1.12062 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 108.579 open to 110.513 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.43456 open to a 1.45165 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.72435 open to 0.72205 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.29386 open to a 1.31214 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.67600 open to a 0.6764 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.