The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 6th through April 10th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday April 5th
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
Monday April 6th
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -60.2K versus -18.3K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
“As the FOMC has consistently communicated, the timing of lift-off will depend on how the economic outlook evolves. As I have discussed, the labor market has improved substantially and I expect to see inflation begin to firm later this year. If this labor market improvement continues and the FOMC is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to our 2 percent objective over the medium-term, then it would be appropriate to begin to normalize interest rates. At the March meeting, the FOMC removed language from the statement that indicated that we would be patient in beginning the process of normalizing monetary policy. But, as Chair Yellen remarked in her most recent press conference, removal of “patient” from the statement does not indicate that we will be “impatient” to begin to normalize monetary policy.”
The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 47.9 versus 51.1 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.6 versus 56.6 expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey noted that,
“More businesses than in previous surveys anticipate an outright decline in sales volumes. While lower oil prices are significantly dampening the near‐term outlook for firms in the energy sector, responses to the survey indicate some spillovers to other sectors, either for firms that are part of the energy supply chain or through indirect effects. Firms’ outlook for the U.S. economy is generally strong, with the majority expecting this strength to support their future sales, including domestically oriented firms that benefit indirectly through increased demand from their exporting customers. Similar to the winter survey, indicators of future sales were more robust for firms with international customers than they were 12 months ago.”
The currency rose.
Tuesday April 7th
2:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.7% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements -1.4% versus 0.7%. The currency rose.
5:30am AUD Cash Rate 2.25% versus 2.25% expected. The currency rose.
5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that,
“The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems likely, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy. At today's meeting the Board judged that it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being. Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target. The Board will continue to assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings”.
The currency rose.
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 522.3B versus 509.2B. The currency fell.
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 57.3 versus 56.5 expected. The currency fell.
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 51.6 versus 51.1 expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 58.9 versus 57.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.13M versus 5.01M expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday April 8th
12:50am JPY Current Account 0.60T versus 0.61T expected. The currency fell.
4:36am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
“Japan's economy has continued its moderate recovery trend. Overseas economies — mainly advanced economies-- have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. In this situation, exports have been picking up. Business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has more or less leveled off at a high level. Private consumption as a whole has remained resilient against the background of steady improvement in the employment and income situation, although recovery in some areas has been sluggish.”
The currency fell.
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders -0.9% versus 1.5% expected. The currency fell.
7:32am JPY BOJ Press Conference, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters that,
“We are not considering conducting additional easing at this point but we are ready to take necessary actions. The pullback (in consumption) after the tax hike will decrease in the summer onward."
The currency fell.
8:15am CHF CPI 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey noted that,
"As part of its mission to maintain monetary stability and financial stability, the Bank needs to understand trends and developments in credit conditions. This quarterly survey of bank and building society lenders is an input to this work. Lenders are asked about the past three months and the coming three months. The survey covers secured and unsecured lending to households; and lending to non-financial corporations, small businesses, and to non-bank financial firms. Along with various data sources and discussions between the major UK lenders and Bank staff, this survey serves as an input into the quarterly Trends in Lending publication which presents the Bank of England’s assessment of the latest trends in lending to the UK economy."
The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Retail Sales -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
2:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
“With regard to the structure of the Federal Reserve System and the role of the regional banks, including the New York Fed, I also agree with Chair Yellen that the system is working well, and I do not see a need for any substantive changes. I believe that the System has been designed appropriately so that a wide range of regional views are represented. At the same time, I believe that the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy responsibilities are allocated appropriately by the Federal Open Market Committee, with New York playing an important role to ensure that monetary policy is executed effectively even during periods of duress. Of course, the Federal Reserve System and the New York Fed are not perfect institutions. That is why we always must strive, in an open and transparent manner, to improve what we do and how we do it, for the benefit of the American people.”
The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 10.9M versus 3.3M expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that,
“The dollar appreciated against most other currencies over the intermeeting period, as policymakers in the euro area, Sweden, Denmark, and many emerging market economies eased monetary policy even as market participants anticipated monetary policy tightening in the United States. Central bank policymakers in Sweden and Denmark lowered the rates on their respective deposit facilities further below zero. In addition, in Sweden, the benchmark repurchase agreement (or repo) rate was reduced in February to below zero for the first time, and a further cut was announced in March. Equity prices rose in most of the advanced foreign economies, with euro-area stocks rallying both before and after the early March commencement of sovereign bond purchases by the ECB under its PSPP.”
The currency rose.
Thursday April 9th
7:59am GBP Halifax HPI 0.4% versus last -0.4%. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -10.3B versus -9.1B expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Building Permits -0.9% versus 3.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 281K versus 283K expected. The currency rose.
Friday April 10th
2:30am AUD Home Loans 1.2% versus 3.0% expected. The currency fell.
2:30am CNY CPI 1.4% versus 1.3% expected.
2:30am CNY PPI -4.6% versus -4.8% expected.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Employment Change versus 0.1K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 6.9% versus 6.8% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Lacker said that, "If we were to raise rates, and then subsequently reduce them to zero, it might be unexpected, but presumably we’re setting rates where we ought to be, I don’t see it as problematic to reduce rates having raised them once." The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Import Prices -0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.09944 open to a 1.06170 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 118.844 open to 120.224 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.49121 open to a 1.46484 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 0.76323 open to a 0.76807 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.24616 open to a 1.25845 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 0.7591 open to a 0.7540 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.