Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of May 25th through May 29th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of May 25th through May 29th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, May 25th
12:50am JPY Trade Balance -0.21T versus -0.38T expected. The currency fell.
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
4:00pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that,
“If the (U.S.) economy is growing very, very slowly we will wait. If the economy is growing faster we will do it quicker. What we are thinking about is raising the interest rate from zero, which is an ultra expansionary monetary policy to a quarter percent, which is an extremely expansionary monetary policy. This will be a gradual process”.
The currency was unchanged.
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance 123M versus 105M expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, May 26th
8:15am CHF Employment Level 4.23M versus 4.21M expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders -0.5% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 95.4 versus 95.2 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 517K versus 501K expected. The currency rose.
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that,
“In the normalizing of its policy, just as when loosening policy, the Federal Reserve will take account of how its actions affect the global economy. The actual raising of policy rates could trigger further bouts of volatility, but my best estimate is that the normalization of our policy should prove manageable for the emerging market economies.”
The currency rose.
Wednesday, May 27th
12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that,
“In the foreign exchange market, the yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has been more or less flat; the yen is currently moving at around 121 yen against the U.S. dollar. The yen's exchange rate against the euro has depreciated, primarily in response to the rise in European long-term interest rates; the yen is recently moving in the range of 134-135 yen against the euro.”
The currency fell.
1:10am USD FOMC Member Lacker said that,
“I haven’t made up my mind yet about June, I am going to wait and see what the data reveals. Generally the data have borne out the notion that the weakness was transitory, we’re looking to see whether the next few weeks will bear that out as well.”
The currency rose.
1:45am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that,
“Globally, there is considerable effort being devoted to understanding the nature of the risks in this area, including whether these risks are any different to those that would arise if investment portfolios were managed directly by the individual investors themselves, without the input of an asset manager. A related stream of work – which in some way parallels similar work for the banking industry – is to examine what role regulation should play in addressing the various risks and what role the central bank should play.”
The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Construction Work Done -2.4% versus -1.5% expected. The currency fell.
7:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 10.2 versus 10.0 expected. The currency rose.
Day 1 ALL G7 Meetings: Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsirpas said that,
“We’re on the final stretch; we’re close to a deal. This agreement will be positive for the Greek economy...it will redistribute weights and I believe we will be able to present more details soon, I want to reassure the Greek people that we’re negotiating by securing in advance conditions of security and stability for the Greek economy. I’m positive we will soon have positive results.”
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that,
“The outlook for the Canadian economy also remains largely in line with the April MPR. While a weak first quarter in the United States has raised questions about that economy’s underlying strength, the Bank expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter. This will help advance the rotation of demand in Canada toward more exports and business investment. Recent indicators suggest consumption in Canada is holding up relatively well, given the impact of lower oil prices on gross domestic income.”
The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 0.75% versus 0.75% expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, May 28th
12:50am JPY Retail Sales 5.0% versus 5.3% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure -4.4% versus -2.3% expected. The currency fell.
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.86B versus 2.77B expected. The currency fell.
7:20am USD FOMC Member Williams said that,
“I have an FOMC meeting coming up in several weeks. I don't need to make decisions today. Collect some more data, get some more information, have discussions and analysis, Data-dependent means nothing is baked in the cake or locked in.”
he continued saying,
“Despite the clear need to consider all potential tools to avoid a financial crisis, I am unconvinced that monetary policy is one of them. While the costs of using monetary policy to address financial stability risks are clear and sizable, the potential benefits of such actions are much harder to pin down.”
The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment 1.7% versus 1.2% expected. The currency fell.
Day 2 ALL G7 Meetings: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that,
“We are all in the process of working towards a solution for Greece and I would not say that we already have reached substantial results. Things have moved, but there is still a lot of work to do.”
1:30pm CAD Current Account -17.5B versus -18.6B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD RMPI 3.8% versus 1.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 282K versus 271K expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 3.4% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M versus -1.5M expected. The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD Building Consents -1.7% versus last 10.3% expected. The currency fell.
Friday, May 29th
12:30am JPY Household Spending -1.3% versus 3.1% expected. The currency fell.
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 15.7 versus last 30.2 expected. The currency fell.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales 1.7% versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 93.1 versus 90.1 expected. The currency fell.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.2% versus -0.5% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR EZ M3 Money Supply 5.3% versus 4.9% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Private Loans 0.0% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
Day 3 ALL G7 Meetings: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that, “If for the first time a country leaves the Eurozone, then it won’t be the same stable monetary union as before”.
1:30pm CAD GDP -0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP -0.7% versus -0.8% expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 46.2 versus 53.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 90.7 versus 90.0 expected. The currency fell.
Saturday, May 30th
7:00pm CAD Governor Council Member Schembri has not yet spoken.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 1.09756 open to a 1.09842 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 121.556 open to 124.047 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.54602 open to a 1.52748 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.78085 open to a 0.76533 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.23013 open to a 1.24797 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.7304 open to a 0.7106 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.