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Weekly Focus Sweden: Greece - Make Or Break?

Published 06/28/2015, 04:49 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Market Movers ahead

Negotiations between Greece and it creditors continue as no deal has been reached yet. We still believe the parties will come to an agreement in time.

Euro area core inflation will be followed closely after the surprise jump in May.

We expect the US labour market to continue to improve with a gain in employment of 230,000 in June. Focus will also be on wage inflation.

The US manufacturing ISM should confirm our expectation of improved economic momentum following the temporary soft patch in the spring.

In Sweden we expect no policy action at the Riksbank's monetary policy meeting, but we remain wary since they clearly attach a strong weight to the SEK strengthening.

In Denmark the currency reserves data for June will show to what degree the Danish central bank has continued to intervene in the FX market.

Global macro and market themes

US and German business cycles are out of sync - macro momentum favours the US currently.

Bond yields are set to rise in H2 as the Fed hike, stronger US growth and a pick-up in inflation loom.

Murky waters short term - but moderately positive on stocks in medium term.

Weekly Focus will be taking a break until Friday 31 July.

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