Market movers ahead
In the US next week, the main event is the US election day on Tuesday. As we write in our US election monitor: It's not over until the fat lady sings, 4 November 2016, the recent developments in both national and state polls show that one should not rule out a Trump victory.
On the macro front in the US we get several Fed speakers and US preliminary consumer confidence.
Euro data on Sentix sentiment, retail sales and German factory orders should confirm the picture of moderate rebound towards the end of 2016.
In Scandi, the focus turns to inflation numbers in Denmark and Norway and industrial production for Norway.
Global macro and market themes
We expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.13-1.14 if Trump wins the US election. A Clinton win would trigger a fall in EUR/USD to 1.0950.
In our view, a Trump win would lead to a kneejerk 15-20bp fall in 10Y UST, medium-term UST yields would rise under both Trump and Clinton.
We believe global equity markets would fall 3-5% on a Trump win but we would see this as a buying opportunity.
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