Week in Review Part IV: Random Musings

[The following surveys were conducted prior to Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate. Arizona and Michigan are next up, Feb. 28.]

NBC News/Marist poll, Michigan

Mitt Romney 37 percent
Rick Santorum 35
Ron Paul 13
Newt Gingrich 8

Detroit News poll, Michigan

Romney 34
Santorum 30
Gingrich 12
Paul 9

Mitchell Research for Michigan Information & Research Service

Santorum 34
Romney 25

NBC News/Marist poll, Arizona

Romney 43
Santorum 27
Gingrich 16
Paul 11

CNN/Time/ORC poll, Arizona

Romney 36
Santorum 32
Gingrich 18
Paul 6

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, nationwide

Santorum 36
Romney 26
Gingrich 13
Paul 11

A Quinnipiac University poll shows Mitt Romney’s unfavorability rating among registered voters nationwide has risen to 43% from 31% in November. A total of 35% had a favorable view of Romney. Santorum was at 34% favorable, 31% unfavorable.

In 2006, Rick Santorum lost a senate re-election bid by 18 points in Pennsylvania. But a new poll from Franklin and Marshall College shows he is leading Mitt Romney by a 45-16 margin in the state. However, President Obama holds an 8-point lead over both GOP candidates here.
A Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona now has President Obama tied with Romney at 47%, while leading Santorum 47-46. Back in November, Obama trailed badly in the state.

From an AP-GfK national poll, President Obama defeats Mitt Romney by 8 points, Rick Santorum by 9, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul by 10. Republicans favored Santorum over Romney, 33-32. Gingrich and Paul had 15 percent each.
According to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, Americans are increasingly upbeat about the economy. By 3-1, they say it’s expanding. Six in 10 predict it will be growing a year from now.

But this hasn’t meant much, yet, for President Obama. His favorable rating is 50%. The thing is, the Gallup poll also reveals 51% says Obama is too liberal, and Americans are inclined to say they disagree with him on the issues that matter most to them.

As for the GOP: “The two leading presidential candidates (Romney and Santorum), have favorable ratings significantly lower than any nominee in the past five elections at this point in the election year. Most Republican voters say they wish someone else was seeking the nomination….

“The GOP does have an edge on enthusiasm. In the poll, 53% of Republican voters say they’re more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared with 45% of Democrats.”
Yeah, but that 53% needs to be far greater, as it was about a year ago

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post

“The last four Republican presidential candidates in the last debate before the Michigan, Arizona and Super Tuesday contests went at it in Mesa, Arizona. It was, to be blunt, a wipeout. Mitt Romney brought the heat and the oppo research and flattened Rick Santorum, getting the former Pennsylvania senator hot and defensive. It was also a good night for Newt Gingrich, who returned to his professorial role. And Ron Paul, for once, was a model of common sense, at least when it came to the federal government and contraception.”

John Podhoretz / New York Post

“Last night, in the 20th GOP debate, national front-runner Rick Santorum spoke these potentially prophetic words: ‘Everything’s not going to be fine.’ He was trying to explain why he’s been speaking so sourly about the condition of American society, but that sentence may prove to be his epitaph following a truly disastrous debate performance.

“Sometimes, politics is hand-to-hand combat, as when Santorum and Mitt Romney scuffled a few times, with Romney mostly getting the better of the exchanges. And sometimes, as Santorum said in defending his unpopular votes in his 12 years as a senator, ‘Politics is a team sport and you have to take one for the team.’
“But sometimes, politics is like golf, with every candidate playing parallel to every other – in which case, the most formidable foe each faces is the one inside his own head. That’s especially true of someone like Santorum, who took the lead unexpectedly a few weeks ago. He had to keep his wits about him last night. If he’d stayed steady, calm and unruffled, he might’ve run away with it.

“Santorum didn’t. He overthought. He overcorrected. He overdid. He spent so much time explaining the process by which he voted for this, or why he’d originally done that, and the difficulty in his position that led to do the other, that he never made a positive case for himself.”

George Will / Washington Post…on Rick Santorum’s opening “multiple fronts in the culture wars.”

“In 1965, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then in President Lyndon Johnson’s administration, published his report on the black family’s ‘crisis,’ which was that 24 percent of black children were then born to unmarried women. Today, 73 percent are. Forty-one percent of all children are now born to unmarried women.

“Moynihan, a social scientist in politics, proposed various family policies but also noted this: When the medieval invention of distilling was combined with Britain’s 18th-century surplus of grain, the result was cheap gin – and appalling pockets of social regression. The most effective response to which was not this or that government policy, it was John Wesley – Methodism. Which brings us back to Santorum.

“He is an engagingly happy warrior, except when he is not. Then he is an angry prophet of a dystopian future in which, he has warned, people will be ‘holed up in their homes afraid to go outside at night.’ He has the right forebodings but might have the wrong profession. Presidential candidates do not thrive as apostles of social regeneration; they are expected to be as sunny as Ronald Reagan was as he assured voters that they were as virtuous as their government was tedious.

“Today’s Republican contest has become a binary choice between two similarly miscast candidates. Mitt Romney cannot convince voters that he understands the difference between business and politics, between being a CEO and the president. To bring economic rationality to an underperforming economic entity requires understanding a market segment. To bring confidence to a discouraged nation requires celebrating its history and sketching an inspiring destiny this history has presaged.

“Romney is right about the futility of many current policies, but being offended by irrationality is insufficient. Santorum is right to be alarmed by many cultural trends but implies that religion must be the nexus between politics and cultural reform. Romney is not attracting people who want rationality leavened by romance. Santorum is repelling people who want politics unmediated by theology.

“Neither Romney nor Santorum looks like a formidable candidate for November.”

Couldn’t agree more.

Michael Gerson / Washington Post

“Both Santorum and Romney have also stumped across Michigan criticizing the auto bailout, which Romney describes as ‘crony capitalism on a grand scale.’ This at a time when General Motors has announced the largest profits in its history.

“You can’t prove a counterfactual, so Santorum and Romney can claim that GM and Chrysler would have been even more successful without public loans, emerging from Chapter 11 leaner, meaner and better able to survive. But this requires an intentional, determined amnesia.

“In 2008, GM and Chrysler were not prepared for a Chapter 11 filing. President George W. Bush’s economic advisers studied the firms’ numbers and determined they might be forced to liquidate without a loan. So Bush provided a three-month bridge loan, allowing the automakers time to restructure before entering bankruptcy and giving Obama some time to make his own policy choices. There are valid questions about the way Obama and Steve Rattner structured their auto bailout. But GM and Chrysler did eventually enter a managed bankruptcy, which was the endgame that Romney himself recommended.

“Specific bailout policies can be disputed, but one fact cannot: No president – Republican or Democrat – would have allowed the economic collapse of the upper Midwest in the midst of a national economic panic. A conservatism that prefers ideology to reality is not particularly conservative.”

For the record, I supported the auto bailout for the exact reason Mr. Gerson gives.

Gerson continues:

“Republicans have a (simple) task. They need to offer a credible economic alternative, while pointing out that Obama has missed his own objectives on reducing unemployment and the federal debt by a mile. Obama – having pledged to cut the deficit in half during his term – has produced four massively unbalanced budgets that put the United States on the road to Athens. He has done little or nothing – this is the craven part – about the unsustainable growth of entitlement spending, which threatens the security of the elderly and the future stability of the economy.

“But as long as Republicans are focused elsewhere, they are providing Obama with his own private bailout.”

Santorum made news last weekend in saying of President Obama that he was peddling a “phony theology” and policies not rooted in the Bible, while also touting home-schooling, which he has done with his seven children. Less than 3% of American parents home-school their kids.

They say home-schooled kids probably eat a more balanced meal at lunch.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that Republican women have a 57% favorable view of Rick Santorum, up 13 points since January. 61% of Republican women view Romney favorably, though he has higher negatives than Santorum – 28% to 18%.

According to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, by 66%-29%, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed say it would be better if one of the four candidates now running managed to secure enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

But I want a brokered convention! whined your editor. It would be a helluva lot more fun than many of us are having now.

In a Suffolk University/WHDH-Boston poll, Republican Sen. Scott Brown leads his Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Warren, by a 49-40 margin in a key race this fall. Among independents, 60% support Brown while only 28% supported Warren.

A study of 2,600 patients by researchers at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, found that undergoing a colonoscopy where polyps were removed resulted in a 53% reduction in risk of death from colon cancer. You don’t need more powerful evidence than this that once you hit 50, get it done.

[Previous research showed the removal of polyps prevented cancer, not necessarily death.]

The Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday on whether lying about something like the Congressional Medal of Honor is a criminal offense as part of the Stolen Valor Act of 2005, which targets individuals who “falsely represents himself or herself, verbally or in writing, to have been awarded any decoration or medal authorized by Congress for the Armed Forces of the United States.”

So the Court will be ruling on the act of lying. A decision is expected this summer. It should make for fascinating reading.

Sign of the Apocalypse…from Newsweek:

“When Paul McCartney took the stage at the 2012 Grammy Awards, Twitter exploded not with praise but confusion. ‘Who is Paul McCartney?’ became a trending topic on the micro-blogging site, with users making all sorts of ill-informed observations about the former Beatle, such as ‘who is he, he hella old too’ and ‘He’s not very popular over here, I think.’”

Sign of the Apocalypse, part deux:

Steve Schmidt was a key adviser to Sen. John McCain during the 2008 presidential race and Mr. Schmidt, as part of the upcoming HBO “docudrama” about the ’08 campaign, related a story in an interview with producers that McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, believed the Queen, not the prime minister, was responsible for the decision to keep British forces in Iraq.

It seems during a coaching session with Schmidt, he asked her what she would do if Britain began to waver in its commitment to the Iraq war.

As reported by Raf Sanchez of London’s Telegraph, “In one of the many rambling responses that eroded her credibility, Mrs. Palin reportedly replied she would ‘continue to have an open dialogue’ with the Queen. A horrified Mr. Schmidt informed her the prime minister, then Gordon Brown, would be responsible for the decision. She also mistakenly believed Saddam Hussein ordered the September 11 attacks.”
Time to complete my move to Yap.

Chelsea Clinton apparently is going to be re-signed by NBC, despite the fact her reporting, err, you know, kind of, err….

Editorial / New York Post…on the 50th anniversary of John Glenn becoming the first American to orbit the Earth.

“Today, the U.S. space program is arguably at its nadir. The final space shuttle mission concluded last summer and, with it, America’s leadership in space exploration.
“President Obama says he wants to land astronauts on an asteroid sometime after 2025, with a manned orbit of Mars a decade later – but with nowhere near the clear vision and commitment Kennedy articulated.

“And trillions in red ink place major constraints on such aspirations.

“However, a core lesson of John Glenn’s historic flight remains: A will to stand as the world’s preeminent and influential power is inextricably linked to the nation’s exploratory spirit.
“Fifty years later, does America still have ‘the right stuff’?”

Nope.   At least not with the current sorry bunch of leaders.

But let’s end on a positive note, shall we? George Will commented on Jean Edward Smith’s biography “Eisenhower in War and Peace” from his perch at the Washington Post. As I’ve said on more than one occasion, I’m a big fan of Ike, whose standing among the presidents continues to improve with each passing year it seems. Will calls Eisenhower “the most underrated president.”

A memorial to Eisenhower is being planned on four acres across Independence Avenue from the National Mall and Will takes issue with The Post’s cultural critic, Philip Kennicott, who praises the Frank Gehry design because it acknowledges that “few great men are absolutely great, without flaws and failings.” To which Will says, “Good grief. If Ike, with all his defects, was not great, cancel the memorial.”

So Will focuses on “Smith’s superb biography of one of three Americans (with Washington and Grant) who were world figures before becoming president. Eisenhower entered the White House having dealt with such demanding military men as John Pershing, Douglas MacArthur and George Marshall, then FDR, Churchill, Stalin…de Gaulle and others in the excruciatingly complex task of conducting coalition warfare with the largest multinational force ever assembled.

“Intellectuals and journalists, who are often the last to learn things, regarded Eisenhower as amiable and mediocre. He was neither. He was cold (see Smith on Eisenhower’s dismissal of his wartime companion Kay Summersby). He was steely (a three-to-four-pack-a-day smoker, he quit when ‘I simply gave myself an order’). He was brutal (he used financial pressure to bring Britain to heel during the 1956 Suez crisis). He was subtle (he assisted de Gaulle’s seizure of power in France in 1944 contrary to FDR’s fervent wishes). He was audacious (he evaded Churchill by dealing directly with Stalin).

“After Eisenhower quickly liquidated a stalemated war in Korea, no American died in combat during his presidency. Twice, concerning the French besieged at Dien Bien Phu in Vietnam and during the Formosa Strait crisis, he resisted – a president with less military confidence might not have – his most senior advisers advocating the use of nuclear weapons.”

There was also no stronger president on the issue of race. Ike finally integrated the army (“two-thirds of Army units were still segregated five years after President Truman’s integration order”), plus he sent the 101st Airborne to integrate Little Rock’s Central High School. As George Will added, “In 1942, when Australia desperately sought U.S. troops but said a law prohibited blacks from entering the country, Gen. Eisenhower said, ‘All right. No troops.’ Australia quickly saw the light.”

Smith writes: “[Eisenhower] was buried in a government-issue, eighty-dollar pine coffin, wearing his famous Ike jacket with no medals or decorations other than his insignia of rank.”

We salute Dwight D. Eisenhower. One of the Greatest this nation has ever produced.
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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

We note the deaths of four special ops airmen in Djibouti, and seven marines in a training exercise here in the States.

God bless America.
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Gold closed at $1776…highest since November
Oil, $109.77…highest since April

Returns for the week 2/20-2/24

Dow Jones +0.3% [12982]
S&P 500 +0.3% [1365]
S&P MidCap +0.1%
Russell 2000 -0.2%
Nasdaq +0.4% [2963]

Returns for the period 1/1/12-2/24/12

Dow Jones +6.3%
S&P 500 +8.6%
S&P MidCap +12.1%
Russell 2000 +11.6%
Nasdaq +13.8%

Bulls 51.1…big drop over last week
Bears 26.6 [Source: Investors Intelligence]