The release of retail sales in March was the last important set of data ahead of the first estimate for GDP growth in Q1 due out next week.
Retail sales declined by 0.5% m/m in March. Excluding auto fuel, they rose by 0.2% m/m. This was below what analysts had expected (Reuters survey). We had anticipated a large increase in retail sales in March as they were weak in both January and February. Total retail sales grew 0.9% q/q in Q1 while excluding auto fuel they increased by 0.5% q/q. Overall, retail sales disappointed despite high consumer confidence, increasing employment and positive real wage growth for the first time since 2009.
Retail sales are volatile, but they indicate that growth in private consumption and hence also output in services slowed in Q1. They also indicate that private consumption and output in services both grew around 0.5% q/q. If so, output in services (78.4% of GDP) may have contributed as little as 0.4pp to GDP growth in Q1, down from 0.7pp in Q4 14.
Since not only retail sales but also production and construction figures disappointed in Q1 (despite strong survey indicators) GDP growth seems to have slowed in Q1. Our calculations suggest that production did not contribute to growth in Q1 while construction output pulled growth down.
Overall, hard data in Q1 indicate that GDP growth may have slowed to as low as 0.25% q/q compared to 0.6% q/q in Q4 14.
Despite the slowdown in growth in Q1, we expect it to rebound in the coming quarters. Higher employment and positive real wage growth should support private consumption. The economic recovery in the rest of Europe is good news for UK exports as increasing growth in UK export markets more than offsets the negative impact on exports from the stronger GBP against the EUR.
The GBP depreciated against both the EUR and USD following the release. The weak figures support our view that the GBP will weaken against the USD ahead of the election on 7 May.
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