USD/SEK has been in a rally mode since yesterday, when it hit support slightly above the crossroads of the 9.4265 zone and the upside support line drawn from the low of Feb. 10. Overall, the rate remains above that line and above another longer-term one, taken from the low of Jan. 13. This, combined with the fact that yesterday, the rate also overcame the peak of Feb. 24, confirming a higher high, paints a positive picture in our view.
Today, the pair moved above the 9.7175 barrier, marked by the inside swing low of May 13, 2020, but quickly returned below it. Another attempt above that zone may encourage the bulls to climb higher, perhaps towards the 9.9135 territory, marked by the peak of May 12, 2020. If that barrier cannot stop them, then we may experience advances towards the 10.1308 zone, defined as resistance by the high of Apr. 23, 2020.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI edged higher but hit resistance at 70 and turned down, while the MACD lies above both its zero and trigger lines. Both indicators detect strong upside speed and support the notion for further advances, but the fact that the RSI ticked down after hitting 70 makes us careful over further setbacks before the next leg north.
We will start examining whether the bears have stolen all the bulls’ swords, only if we see a clear break below 9.2450, support marked by the low of Feb. 16. This could confirm the break below the upside line taken from the low of Jan. 13 and may initially pave the way towards the 9.1725 zone, marked by the inside swing high of Feb. 8.
Another break below 9.1725 could extend the fall towards the low of Feb. 10, at 9.0795, or the low of Jan. 18, at 8.9885. if neither territory can hold, then the bears could continue marching south, towards the low of Jan. 13, at around 8.9060.
