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USD/JPY: Rebound Extends Higher

ByDAYTRADE PROFIT
Published 03/31/2014, 03:18 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY's rebound from the 101.20 extended higher last week but is kept well below 103.40 so far.

For next week 103.40 is major resistance point and daily closing above it will confirm short-term bullish breakout for targets 104.10. On downside, 102.30-80 and 101.30 are support levels. Traders keep wait and watch strategy here.

The chart below shows that today’s rally is really within the context of a larger consolidation between the February low of 100.75 and the MArch high of 103.75. A break above this 300-pip range will be needed to open up the bullish outlook into the medium term, which can perhaps revive an uptrend from 2012 and 2013 that has been stalling in 2014 so far.

Price actions from 105.41 is viewed as a correction pattern and the second leg from 100.75 should have completed at 103.40 already. Thus, we'd expect upside of the current rebound to be limited below 103.40 and bring fall resumption. Below 101.30 should send the USD/JPY down.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 75.56 Is not over yet,the next leg up will probably sent usdjpy to 110.60-111.30 area
In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that the USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.

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