The USD/JPY has been trading with in a trend channel since late January as you see in the chart above. This week we tumbled back towards the lower channel support at 101.50 and bottomed exactly here yesterday. Very oversold short term so chances are we recover now to resistance at 102.10/15. We should struggle here but a break higher cannot be ruled out and could target 102.50/55. A good chance of a high for the day here. Exit longs and try shorts with stops above 102.85. Use 102.55/50 as support then and look for a move towards 103.10/15 for a selling opportunity.
Failure to beat 102.10/15 keeps the market under pressure for a retest of 101.55/50. Clearly this is important support but be aware that a break below March lows at 101.20 should trigger stops and target 10 month trend line support at 101.00, possibly as far as 200 day moving average and February lows at 100.80/75.