USD/CHF BIAS: Finely balance here with the 0.8860-63 area important - if it holds then we could see further gains.
| Resistance: | 0.8881 | 0.8906 | 0.8917-24 | 0.8940 |
| Support: | 0.8860-63 | 0.8845-50 | 0.8835 | 0.8813 |
MAIN ANALYSIS: The rally higher developed as expected even reaching the higher 0.8870 retracement - and 4 points above. There is still a chance that we could see losses resume but I feel momentum tends to suggest higher still. Thus, note the 0.8860-63 support and as long as this holds we should see follow-through to 0.8881. If seen we should see a small correction back to the 0.8863-75 area before higher to 0.8906-24. This should cap and provoke a correction lower. I suspect the 0.8860-70 area will support again and then see gains back above 0.8929-40 and to the 0.9011 projection.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any earlier direct break below 0.8855 would risk seeing losses down through 0.8845-50 and to 0.8789-00 en route 0.8768-75. This should support for a reversal higher. Only below 0.8740 would risk further losses.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
31st March: The 0.8898 high was an interesting level as it would allow a recycling back to the 0.8766-75. I wouldn't rule out deeper levels but at this stage take this step by step.
A break back above 0.8898 would confirm more direct gains through 0.8929-40 and to approach the 0.8984-01 area.