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USD/CHF Forecast: October 17, 2013

ByIan Copsey
Published 10/17/2013, 02:28 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

USD/CHF

BIAS: We have seen the high here and the first leg lower… thus the upside should be limited

Resistance Support

MAIN ANALYSIS: EUR/USD made a new low. Therefore, we have a mismatch with the structures between the two, and the EUR/USD needs to play catch-up. I mention this as it could (at some point) imply greater upward acceleration in EUR/USD while the USD/CHF could work through a complex correction. Quite at which point in the structure this will occur is obviously not known, but let's be aware of this anyway. Yesterday's low stalled just above the 0.9092 low with the correction almost 100%. It suggests there shouldn't be another deep correction - possibly holding below the 0.9143-53 area and sending price directly back to the 0.9092-97 lows. Take care as this could provoke a correction but probably minor before seeing follow-through to 0.9063 at least - a break then signalling 0.9015-20.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only back above the 0.9174-77 area would trigger a move to 0.9205 before reversing lower.

Only above 0.9210 would begin to concern, note the 0.9225-35 resistance. Above there will surprise and imply further gains - next resistance around 0.9265-75.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
17th October: It looks like the 0.9177 high was the final highand as such we should soon see losses extend below 0.8967 and move down to the next target at 0.8838. (Though keep in mind the deeper projection at 0.9749.) This should provoke a much deeper correction before it can finally move to the final daily retracement target.

Only back above 0.9205 would risk an alternative structure that could keep price in a larger daily consolidation.

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