EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1200, target 1.1450, stop-loss 1.1090
USD/CAD trading strategy: short at 1.2530, target 1.2380, stop-loss 1.2590
AUD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7815, target 0.8020, stop-loss 0.7725
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7525, target 0.7700 stop-loss moved to 0.7525
EUR/CHF trading strategy: long at 1.0690, target 1.0990, stop-loss moved to 1.0690
Pending Orders
GBP/USD trading strategy: buy at 1.5250, if filled - target 1.5580, stop-loss 1.5150, risk factor *
EUR/JPY trading strategy: buy at 132.30, if filled - target 136.00, stop-loss 131.20, risk factor ***
GBP/JPY trading strategy: buy at 182.40, if filled - target 186.60, stop-loss moved to 181.30, risk factor **
AUD/JPY trading strategy: buy at 92.55, if filled - target 94.80, stop-loss 91.40, risk factor **
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies
EUR/USD Under Pressure Ahead Of The ECB Meeting
(our long is under threat)
- Euro zone retail sales rose 1.1% mom in January, a far better reading than the median forecast for 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, retail trade jumped 3.7%, the steepest increase since August 2005.
- Germany's best performance in seven years (a rise in retail sales by 2.9% mom and 5.3% yoy) was behind the impressive rise, suggesting that cheaper oil prices and low interest rates are helping retailers in Europe's biggest economy. On the other hand German record employment levels and increased wages improve consumer sentiment. According to the European Commission's latest survey, economic morale in the euro zone rose at the start of this year as shoppers were more optimistic in Germany, but also in Spain and Italy.
- In addition, the Euro zone's private sector expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in February. Euro zone PMI services index amounted to 53.7, slightly below the earlier flash estimate of 53.9. Euro zone PMI composite index amounted to 53.3, also slightly softer than the earlier flash estimate of 53.5. PMI index pointed to first quarter GDP growth of 0.3% qoq, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2014.
- The EUR is under pressure ahead of the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow and our EUR/USD remains under threat. The ECB will deliver a new set of macroeconomic forecasts on Thursday. We may expect some upward revisions for GDP growth forecasts by the ECB, which should help the EUR. The nearest strong support level is 11-year low at 1.1098.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.1218 (high Mar 3), 1.1245 (high Feb 27), 1.1271 (10-dma)
Support: 1.1098 (low Jan 26), 1.1047 (low Sep 8, 2003), 1.1000 (psychological level)
USD/CAD: Stay Short Waiting For BoC Decision
(stay short, target raised to 1.2360)
- The CAD strengthened against the USD on Tuesday after data showed the economy grew at a faster pace than forecast during the fourth quarter, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada will likely keep interest rates on hold. The USD/CAD fell after the Canadian GDP release to 1.2433. However, the strengthening of the CAD was short-lived.
- The 2.4% annualized rate for Canadian GDP in the fourth quarter marked a step down from an upwardly revised 3.2% in the third quarter. But the reading was higher than the median forecast for 2% growth.
- Household spending continued to boost the quarter with final consumption expenditure rising 2.0% on an annualized basis. Exports of goods fell 2.5% on an annualized basis. Exports of crude oil and bitumen products fell 6.5%, while exports of refined petroleum products slumped 36.3% against the backdrop of the sharp decline in crude prices. Business investment fell 0.4%, with firms spending less on plants and equipment.
- For December, real GDP rose 0.3% mom, topping forecasts for 0.2% mom as manufacturing picked up. For the year overall, GDP rose 2.5%, accelerating from 2% in 2013.
- The Canadian central bank is due to announce its March rate decision today (15:00 GMT). We expect that the Bank of Canada will not change interest rates.
- The USD/CAD is near the entry level of our short position now (1.2530). Breaking above this level before the BoC decision will be a good opportunity to get short again. We have raised the target of out short position to 1.2380 due to the broad USD strength. We moved the stop-loss to 1.2590.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.2565 (high Mar 2), 1.2600 (psychological level), 1.2662 (high Feb 24)
Support: 1.2433 (low Mar 3), 1.2388 (low Feb 26), 1.2360 (low Feb 17)
AUD/USD Stays In Its Horizontal Range
(long for 0.8020)
- Australian GDP expanded by 0.5% qoq in the fourth quarter, compared to the previous quarter when it rose by 0.4% qoq. The reading was in line with market expectations.
- In seasonally adjusted terms, the main contributors to the increase in expenditure on GDP were net exports (0.7 percentage points) and final consumption expenditure (0.6 percentage points). Household spending power has found support from falling petrol prices, rising home values and a large stock of savings, which is helping offset sluggish growth in wages. The main detractor was a change in inventories (-0.6 percentage points).
- Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia not cutting rates yesterday, as it was expected, and good GDP growth data, the AUD/USD cannot break above the area of 0.7850 due to the broad USD strength.
- The rate fell below the entry point of our long position and the raised stop-loss level. We have decided to get long again at 0.7815 and are still targeting 0.8020 in the short term.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 0.7850 (high Mar 2), 0.7914 (high Feb 26), 0.8025 (high Jan 28)
Support: 0.7751 (hourly low Mar 3), 0.7721 (low Feb 13), 0.7644 (low Feb 12)