US Dollar Speculators Raise Bullish Positions Again

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators pushed their overall US dollar bullish bets higher last week after a slight decrease the previous week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $46.45 billion as of Tuesday November 18th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$2.46 billion from the $43.99 billion total long position that was registered on November 11th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US Dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s aggregate bullish level remains in a strong position with gains three out of the last four weeks and situated above the +$40 billion level for a seventh consecutive week. According to Reuters, the current $46.45 billion bullish position is the highest USD position since 2008. Each of the individually tracked currencies have now had a net bearish position versus the dollar also for a seventh week (see data below).

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts

In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts increased for a fourth straight week last week to +393,529 contracts as of Tuesday November 18th. This was a change by +20,971 contracts from the total of +372,558 contracts as of Tuesday November 11th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 7th week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

• Euro positions dropped by -4,837 contracts after a rebound the previous week. Eurofx positions are highly bearish and have remained over the -160,000 contracts level for four consecutive weeks. The EURUSD exchange rate was over the 1.2500 level on Tuesday Nov 18th although finished the week off on a decline by over 1% to trade under 1.2400

• British pound sterling positions decreased for a 7th week and to a new most bearish level since September of 2013. The GBPUSD spot exchange rate saw a slight decline to end the week with the price closing near the 1.5650 level. The GBPUSD has now closed lower for the past five weeks

• Japanese yen bets fell again last week for a third straight week and to the lowest level in six weeks. The USDJPY exchange rate continued to strengthen sharply for a 5th week and ended the week over the 117 level

• Swiss franc bets edged up last week by +559 contracts although the franc positions remain near their lowest levels since June 2013. The USDCHF pair closed the week over 1% higher and right below the 0.9700 exchange rate

• Canadian dollar positions edged higher last week with net positions falling below the -20,000 level. The USDCAD exchange rate ended the week lower (-0.50%) with the price coming in just below the 1.1250 major level

• Australian dollar net positions edged very slightly higher for a second week. The AUDUSD finished the week lower (-0.88%) with the exchange rate near the 0.8675 level

• New Zealand dollar net positions edged lower last week (-258 contracts) and the net position remains slightly bearish overall for a 7th week. The NZDUSD exchange rate ended the week a bit lower (-0.30%) and just below the 0.7900 level

• Mexican peso positions edged slightly higher last week (+640 contracts). Peso speculator positions have been on the bearish side now for eight straight weeks and remain just below the -30,000 level. The USDMXN exchange rate ended the week higher and at the 13.5974 level

This latest COT data is through Tuesday November 18th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.