Despite the correction of the dollar for the trading session of December 1, as well as the consolidation of the dollar in the range 87,00-88,50, analysts of the Option Trading Department of the Masterforex-V World Academy http://www.masterforex-v.com/ believe that the upward trend will continue in the medium and long term.
Given the fact that this week the Central Banks of Australia, Canada, the UK and the Euro Zone will hold meetings on monetary policy and on Friday there are data on the number of jobs outside agriculture in the US, investors are not likely to open large positions before publication such a large amount of information that may affect the bids. Probably, the market participants benefit from a decrease in the dollar for its purchase.
Consolidation of the dollar may also be due to the fact that investors analyze the fluctuations in oil prices and signs of slowing manufacturing activity in Europe and China, as well as disappointing sales of retailers in the US "Black Friday."
However, despite a slight decline in macroeconomic indicators in the United States, the main indicators, such as inflation, the dynamics of reduction in unemployment, GDP growth and indices PMI, the dollar looks much stronger euro and other currencies.
For more information about the main economic data of the first days of winter, contributing to the growth of the dollar. see below:
- Retail spending in the US over the weekend, when there was Thanksgiving Day, decreased by 11%, according to a leading industry group. This indicates that the annual 4-day shopping spree may gradually losing momentum. Decline recorded the 2nd consecutive year, partly due to the fact that retailers have started offering discounts for several days or even weeks before the holiday, giving customers a great opportunity to get discounts without having to stand in line in the "Black Friday". Many retailers are offered on the Internet the same prices as in traditional retail. Internet did not attract more buyers and expenses than last year;
- ISM index of manufacturing activity in the US went above economists' expectations of 57.9, at 58.7, but has slowed somewhat relative value of 59.0 in October. Decrease in the index with the highest value since the beginning of 2011 was due to lower oil prices and commodity prices;
- Index of manufacturing activity from Markit PMI in the US went out worse than economists' expectations of 55.0, at 54.8. Despite the continuing growth of industrial activity, the rate declined at the fastest pace since June 2013;
- China's manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.3 in November, down from 50.8 in October and becoming worse than economists' expectations at 50.5;
- European manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 last month, after the value expected at 50.4. 3 largest production Euro Zone economy was below a "neutral" level 50: German index fell from 50.0 to 49.5, in France - rose from 47.6 to 48.4, in Italy amounted to 49.0, down from 49, 5. In the UK PMI rose to 53.5 from 53.0 in November, becoming higher than the forecast of economists;
- The international rating agency Moody 's Investors Service downgraded Japan's credit rating by one notch to A1 from Aa3, citing uncertainty about whether the government reduce the budget deficit of the nation after the announcement by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delays increase the sales tax. Japanese rating was downgraded for the first time in 2 years;
- Japan's manufacturing index fell to 52 in November from 52.4 in October;
- The price of gold has increased by 1.5% to 1,192.60 dollars per ounce after the announcement to reduce Japan's credit rating. Morning decline in gold prices helped by the fact that the political and business circles of Switzerland opposed the initiative, according to which the central bank of Switzerland was to convert 20% of its assets in gold and prohibit the sale of gold to the Bank in the future;
- Russian ruble has undergone the most active weakening against the dollar since 1998, a decrease of 6.5% due to lower oil prices and the Western economic sanctions;
- The focus of investors was still focused on the oil and gas sector in the light of the recent drop in oil prices by 38% from the highs in late June as part of a rollback reinforced last week, OPEC's decision to maintain the same oil production quotas. The price of oil on the Nymex at the time of this writing, grew by 1.5% to 67.19 dollars per barrel, recovering after falling sharply on Friday;
- The yield on US 10 Year government bond rose to 2.172%, there is also the growth of short-term US bonds.
Market participants are waiting for the results of the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 4, at the same time growing expectations that officials indicate an intention to expand its asset purchase program in order to restart the flagging economy of the region. On Friday, December 5, US Department of Labor will publish monthly employment report for November. Projected growth in the number of jobs at 228,000 and unemployment at 5.8%.