UK Retail Sales should provide some volatility for the sterling as market remain indecisive over the upcoming referendum and recent bout of USD strength. I’d recommend to follow the trade plan below and unless we get our deviations, staying out may be the better option…
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast -0.1% Previous -0.4%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY GBP 0.4% / SELL GBP -0.6%)
The Trade Plan
The monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for its currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for its currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5%. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour; of course, considering that we are expecting a -0.1% figure, I would recommend to BUY only if the figure is at least 0.4% or better, and SELL only if the figure is below -0.6%.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBP/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition
UK Retail Sales measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.