UK BOE Interest Rate Decision is not likely to surprise the market as Europe as whole is still recovering and so far economic improvements have not reached a point to start tightening, and also considering the incoming Brexit effect, I seriously doubt that there will be a surprise rate decision today.
8:00am (NY Time) UK BOE Interest Rate Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
8:00am (NY Time) APT (Asset Purchasing Target) Forecast 435B Previous 435B
DEVIATION: N/A
8:00am (NY Time) UK Votes Rate (0-0-9), APT (0-0-9)
The Trade Plan
In the extremely unlikely event BOE cuts rate to 0.00%, we´ll sell GBP immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we´ll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should SELL and keep a small portion for larger gains… On the other hand, if we get a an unchanged decision on the Official Bank Rate, then we would probably not see much market reaction, thus staying out of the market would be the right course of action.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBP/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition
(From Wikipedia) BOE Interest Rate, or the official bank rate (also called the Bank of England base rate or BOEBR) is the interest rate that the Bank of England charges Banks for secured overnight lending. It is the British Government’s key interest rate for enacting monetary policy. It is more analogous to the US discount rate than to the Federal funds rate. The security for the lending can be any of a list of eligible securities (commonly Gilts) and are transacted as overnight repurchase agreements. When an announcement of the change in interest rates is made this is the rate the Bank of England is changing. Changes are recommended by the Monetary Policy Committee and enacted by the Governor.