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U.S. Indices: Short-Term Outlook

Published 10/01/2012, 10:29 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Nasdaq 100 -- Daily
Nasdaq 100:

2797.94

Short-Term Trend: weak uptrend

Outlook
Well, unexpectedly Nasdaq 100 fell sharply last week, more than 100 pts from its September top. That way our long idea did not work out at all. What's more, the speed of the decline from the Sept top suggests that a Short-Term top might be in place. And based on the larger-degree wave count (see our analysis on weekly chart - the Medium-Term outlook), this top may turn out to be even more significant.

Now, for this week, we can expect mostly sideways trading. Ideally the market will go lower initially but then will likely recover. Depending on the depth of this subsequent recovery, we will have more evidence if an important top is already in place or not.

Strategy: The hypothetical long from 2850 was stopped out at 2810. Stand aside.
S&P 500 -- Daily
S&P500: 1440.67

Short-Term Trend: weak uptrend

Outlook
The market fell sharply last week but so far the 1430 support has held (honestly, our stop at 1430 remained safe by just half a point). Based on the wave count on the chart above, we can expect one more rally attempt this week. But it should be noted that the confidence in this count is now extremely low. If stopped out, I would prefer to step back from the market for a week or two before a more clear picture is present.

Strategy: Holding long from 1460 is favored against 1430. Target=1530.


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