- The labour market showed a few signs of improvement in the three months through April. The unemployment rate remained unchanged (at 7.8%), but employment was up by 24,000 in the quarter, and unemployment decreased by 5,000 (to 2.51 millions).
- The labour market showed few signs of improvement in the three months through April. Year-on-year, the pace of increase of employment slowed (+1.5% y/y, after +1.7% y/y), but employment was up by 24,000 quarter-on-quarter (against -43,000 in the three months to March).
- The number of unemployed, as measured by ILO, thus decreased by 5,000 quarter-on-quarter (to 2.51 millions), and the unemployment rate remained unchanged in the three months to April compared to the three previous months (at 7.8%). Moreover, the level of the U.K. claimant count (people receiving JSA (Jobseeker’s Allowance) was down for the seventh month in a row in May (by 8,500). The number of people claiming JSA (1.508 millions in May), which is around a million lower than the number of unemployed people as measured by ILO, thus reached its lowest level since May 2011.
- Households’ disposable income remained dampened by the slow increase in regular pay growth excluding bonuses (+0.9% y/y in the quarter, after +0.8% y/y). With inflation, at 2.4% in April (after 2.8% in March), households’ purchasing power is still decreasing. However all in all, these data suggest that the labour market conditions slightly improved in comparison with the beginning of the year.
- The eurozone crisis, uncertainty about the global economic conditions and the fiscal government’s squeeze will still weigh on the economy, and the pace of increase in GDP growth should remain weak in the coming months. However data and surveys suggest that GDP, which rose by 0.3% q/q in Q1 2013 (after -0.3% q/q in Q4 2012) should record a further, even if limited, increase in Q2. Employment should rise with a lag with an increase in output. It is especially true given that that productivity sharply fell in the past months. However, employment should remain resilient.
BY Catherine STEPHAN
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