Although a variety of headlines are circulating following President Trump’s speech at the United Nations, financial market movements are slightly muted as investors around the globe prepare for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve policy meeting later today.
The dollar is gradually moving higher against a mixture of different global counterparts, however this might not be a direct impact of Federal Reserve expectations and is likely instead a result of the protectionist reminders heard from Trump during his address at the United Nations and prolonged trade uncertainties.
In reality, there really are not any surprises that Trump used his speech at the United Nations to reiterate his “America First” message.
I would personally pay closer attention to the Federal Reserve decision later today because investors seem to be positioning that the “near certainty” of U.S. interest rates being raised this month will make this meeting a “non-event” for financial markets.
Personally I am doubtful on that one because with all the prolonged external uncertainties that contribute to an ongoing unpredictable financial market, everyone would like to know what the outlook for U.S. monetary policy might possibly be heading into 2019. If the Federal Reserve suggests that the pace of U.S. interest rate rises will slow down next year, or that they are cautious in general about more interest rate increases do not be surprised if the USD sells off against the board.
Elsewhere, traders need to keep a close eye on the British pound with more Brexit discussions between the United Kingdom and European Union reported for today. There is even speculation the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will announce during a public address that the United Kingdom will have the lowest taxes in the G20 post-Brexit, which suggests to me that UK officials are now bracing for a potential hard-Brexit reality more than ever.
The British pound continues to look over positioned that there will be a breakthrough and soft-Brexit eventuality with the pound trading near 1.32 at time of writing. The upside potential from these levels is very limited on positive news, but the downside risks far more substantial if investors become concerned and decide to re-price in a potential hard-Brexit.
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