Soybeans look to reverse last week’s trend entering the weekend by going higher rather than lower Sunday night. The five-to-seven-day forecast has three to nine inches of rain across the Midwest. This does two things. First it suggests planting progress slows down and second that crop conditions decline. Tuesday we have the final planted acre report and stocks on hand report. The excessive rain should create fear that acres will come in unplanted and stocks lower as we have been overselling old crop beans. Traders will be looking to sell rallies off of these bullish reports as not to take long positions home with a long Fourth of July holiday. Ninety percent of the pricing influence for soybeans is weather and its impact on planting and early crop emergence. Long holiday weekends can see the weather flip flop several times creating risk. Next week is the week to sell rallies. Technical’s read like this. September wheat resistance is 5.45 then 6.04 support 4.75. September bean support 9.70 then 9.52 resistance 9.84 to 10.00. September corn support 3.78 and 3.66 resistance 3.94.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain webinar each Thursday at 3pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
Sign Up Now
Tim Hannagan
Grain Analyst
Walsh Trading
thannagan@walshtrading.com