Third Time Lucky...?

I royally screwed up over the past two days looking for a deeper correction. Well, Thursday we did see a correction but I had thought, not quite deep enough. However, looking back, that was the pullback for that segment of the structure and therefore the repeated call on Friday failed with some glory…

The break levels suggesting the Dollar would merely resume its downtrend were pretty clear however, and it managed that with some aplomb. So much so that we’ve all but reached the next higher degree projection levels. Rather ironically it means that I have to call for a correction higher…

Having said that, I do feel that there should be some marginal new lows to come in EUR/USD and USD/CHF. Once seen the implied corrections actually look pretty deep… Probably GBP/USD has already seen its high and now we face a critical few days as we see how it performs. The fact it stalled just below the 1.6301 high will obviously not gone unnoticed. Quite how this decline develops may well impact on the next few months, the balance between the two polar opposites of bullish & bearish now at stake.

The Aussie pushed above 1.0613… and on that basis may well have signaled its long-term intent. However, the shorter-term outlook has become a little more vague while the Dollar (should) correct higher…

Finally USD/JPY soared like a bird… There is a last gasp resistance not much above current levels so there is still some doubts and I suspect a correction lower today. However, looking at the daily chart I suspect we may be seeing a stronger rally. Whether it’s the resumption of the larger weekly uptrend is still up for debate.

For now I’ll acknowledge it as an option but there are still obstacles to overcome. However, equally the resultant rally in EUR/JPY has also taken on what appears to be a stronger bullish outlook. Yes, a correction is due after a minor new high in the cross too, but beyond that correction the outlook remains bullish and I sense the risk that it’ll be quite a solid rally…

Take care today in the first half. By the second half of the day we should start seeing the Dollar beginning to claw back some of its losses…