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The United States Decouples From A Deflationary World

Published 02/08/2015, 03:00 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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With the investment community totally convinced the world is falling into a deflationary spiral, the monthly jobs report became a focal point for corroboration the United States is afflicted with a similar condition. Shock of shock, when the number came in at 257k, above expectations of nearly 230k, plenty of skeptics probably are reconsidering their investment thesis. The week saw plenty of volatility with Crude Oil prices as well, only this time, the loveable black substance rose 13%. It seems Libya has cut back dramatically on production because of dangerous conditions in that country. You could say the same thing about nearly every vacation paradise that is the Middle East. Another group sure to bring a smile to investor's faces is Greece, which is trying to renegotiate it's obligations to the rest of the European Union. It's sugar daddy, along with the rest of Europe, Germany, is not real pleased with the request but will try to do the best it can to accommodate the hard working Greeks. More importantly, it wants to save itself and the rest of Europe from beginning down the path of a potential currency blowup. Interesting how self preservation takes full precedence in most cases, eh?

In conjunction with the volatility in the oil pits, the ten year treasury actually budged a bit higher to yield an earth shattering 1.94%. The large money center banks are helped by the slight increase in the slope of the yield curve, so investors began to nibble on this long dormant group. If our loveable Fed head ever becomes joltin Janet by announcing an increase in rates sooner than expected, the big boy lenders will see more than just token interest.

In tech world, where the biggest bubbles don't reside in public markets, but instead lie in the market prices of yet to be launched IPO's (think Uber, Pinterest, and AirBnB), there was plenty of action as well. LinkedIn continued to grow its user base and revenue total and was viewed as the biggest victor of the week. Twitter posted a very good revenue number and improved monetization metrics, although the number of tweeters twitting truly tumbled. GoPro also showed that plenty of people want their product, probably to be placed in crevices we don't even know exist. Still, the street was not impressed, but some of that has to because of it's, shall we say, interesting valuation.

Showing there is always something going on with big pharma, Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) bought Hospira for $17 billion to gain more access to the injectable and biosimilar markets. In the media world, Sirius XM Holding Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI) impressed with good subscriber numbers. Pandora (NYSE:P), the free music and subscription entertainment offering, was roundly seen as being in a world of hurt because of, who would have thought, competiton from other free services (can you say Spotify?). A few cable companies saw their number of users increase as the idea they are going anywhere because of over the top services remains strictly an idea. Finally, in the quick service restaurant sector, Dunkin Donuts was seen as having a poor result as apparently their new swill is pretty much the same as the old stuff.

In the political universe, the leader of Jordan showed there is politician in the world who has the will to take on Isis. As he so eloquently stated, the real question is will other countries, hint, hint, have the courage to be all in as well?

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charter holder.

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