With July crude oil expiring Tuesday, June 21st, the August contract is the lead contract. This took place on Friday as volume dries up in the July contract and moves to the August contract. This happens every month as crude oil trades every month during the calendar year. August crude oil traded higher on Monday, June 20, 2016 as traders continue to react to the Brexit / Bremain polls.
The latest poll has Britain remaining in the European Union as sympathy with the Bremain vote grows after the murder of politician Jo Cox. Last week polls were turning towards Brexit and worries over possible slowing economic activity with an exit from the European Union had crude oil crashing. Crude oil could continue to react to these polls until the vote on Thursday, June 23rd. The rally has created a strengthening technical outlook for August crude oil in my opinion and a close above 50.21 could cause crude oil to test the highs up at 51.67.
Any change in the polls could reverse the price action and send price lower to test trendline support down at 46.54. Pay attention these polls and react accordingly. Janet Yellen reports to congress Tuesday and Wednesday for her semi-annual testimony. She appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
High 50.00
Low 48.72
Last 49.84
Daily Pivots for 6/21/16:
R2 50.84
R1 50.32
PIVOT 49.52
S1 49.04
S2 48.24